Gale Warning 132, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW NEAR
56.5N 145W WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING N-NE TOWARDS THE N
GULF COAST AND WRAPPING AROUND THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. MDT-
HEAVY RA CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE PAKT
RECEIVED ALMOST 6 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THU MORNING. A WAVE
PROPAGATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY S-SELY WINDS AND CONTINUED
MDT-HVY PRECIP. AS THIS WAVE PUSHES N IT WILL BRING DIMINISHING RA
AND WINDS ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL SPREAD N THROUGH THE
DAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE RESPONDED
TO THIS RAINFALL WITH 1-2 FT RISES SINCE WED NIGHT...BUT NONE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE. P-TYPE WILL BE RA
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHWAYS WHERE TEMPS SUPPORT A WET SN THIS MORNING.
CONTINUE TO EXPECT 1-3 INCHES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RA THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH GALES OVER THE GULF
AND PKZ051-052 EASING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW CRITERIA...SEAS WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. ONE AREA OF INTEREST IS A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW. SREF PROB OF -LI PEAKS AROUND 50 PERCENT OVER THE E GULF
LATE THIS MORNING. ELECTED TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF FCST
ATTM...BUT WITH COOLING TOPS ON IR IMAGERY...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING. OVER THE INSIDE WATERS...ADVISORIES FOR E-W
CHANNELS...CLARENCE STRAIT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL EASE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. THE BREAK IN WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AS
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.

USED MAINLY EC FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINING AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC ALONG 150W
WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY CURVING WEST SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WILL
LIFT NORTH AND THEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. A TRAILING TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.

PRIOR TO THE SATURDAY NIGHT FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THERE IS THE BRIEF BREAK AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE LIGHTER AMOUNTS SHOULD
FALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE FAR NORTH ALONG
THE HIGHWAYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SOME SNOW WILL REVIEW
THE POTENTIAL AMOUNT THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE WE DEVELOP A
FINER IDEA OF THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN THOSE REGIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WINDS WITH THE SATURDAY FRONT LOOK TO BE GALE FORCE FOR THE GULF
COAST WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT FOR MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNELS. A
FEW OF THE FAVORED CHANNELS LIKE CLARENCE AND CROSS SOUND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE UP TO GALE FORCE AS WELL.

HEADED INTO TUESDAY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME. MODELS SOLUTIONS SEEM
TO BE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE GULF ABOUT HE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE COLD
BAY REGION. DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION ARE MAKING
THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT QUESTIONABLE ALONG WITH HOW STRONG IT WILL
BE.

BLENDED THE EARLY CHANGES INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THAT WAS
ALREADY IN PLACE CHANGES THROUGH MONDAY WERE PRIMARILY ALONG THE
LINES OF ECMWF AND LITTLE HELP FROM GFS (MAINLY FOR WIND SPEEDS IN
THE GULF.)

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
      EVENING FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
      FOR AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-031-034>036-041>043.
&&

BC/BEZENEK

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