Storm Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 25, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 25, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

406 
FZAK51 PAJK 251245
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-260100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE
TUE. A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
WEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-260100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-260100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

.TODAY...SOUTH WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ013-260100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-260100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-260100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 
9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-260100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-260100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-260100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. HIGHEST WINDS SOUTHERN AREA. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-260100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-260100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8
FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ036-260100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jan 24, 4:46 PM AKST, 11 hours 14 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
446 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR AN VERY ACTIVE
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW A WEAKENING TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH THERE
IS A VERY STRONG 950MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS TO BE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT. A WAVE WILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL. THIS
SYSTEM IS VERY ENERGETIC WITH LOTS OF WARM MOIST AIR.
PRECIPITATIBLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION AS
THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND A VERY STRONG LLJ OF 50KT PLUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SO WITH THAT SAID THE WINDS AND RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN FROM THE UPPER TROF FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM OVER THE AREA DRIFTING EAST. THE RAIN AND WILL WILL
INCREASE TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS ALONG WITH PRECIP INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW NEAR
WHITE PASS AND HYDER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE DAY WITH 4-6
NEAR WHITE PASS AND 2-4 NEAR HYDER BY THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. USED A
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECASTER PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MON NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE AERE SEVERAL MECHANISMS FOR HIGH WIND MON
NIGHT AND TUES. ONE IS THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE
TO THE PANHANDLE COAST OVERNIGHT MON THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL
HAVE 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
RAPID PRESSURE RISES DURING THE DAY TUES. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT PULLS NW DURING THE DAY...THE PRESSURE RISES
WILL MAKE FOR A PUSH OF WARM S WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
DURING THE DAY AND INTO LYNN CANAL BY TUES EVENING. THIS SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVEL TO RISE TO ABOUT 5000 FT
SOUTHERN PANAHANDLE AND ABOUT 2500 FT N PANHANDLE.

NOTEWORTHY PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY EACH
WAVE WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE BY THUR. THE HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS MAKES SNOW AMOUNTS TRICKY TO FORECAST BUT THE HIGHER
REACHES OF THE COASTAL RANGE SHOULD RECEIVE SEVERAL FEET OF NEW
SNOW BY THE WEEKEND.

FINALLY...THE PERSISTENT SLY FETCH OF WIND WILL GENERATE LARGE
SEAS OF 20-25 FEET. IMPACTS TO AVIATION AS WELL THIS WEEK WITH
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND ICING. THE LONG RANGE MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE NE PAC NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER TO OUR WEST AND ALLOW SE AK A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHTER WIND.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HIGH ON THE GENERAL STORMINESS BUT THE
DETAILS OF EACH STRONG FRONTAL WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE HONED DURING
THE WEEK. UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR MON NIGHT TO THUR USING THE
EXISTING GRIDS...GFS AND EC. FORECASTS BEYOND THU MAINTAINED CLOSE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS NATIONAL CENTER GUIDANCE AND WERE
NOT CHANGED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ023-026>028.
     STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
     STRONG WIND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>036-042-043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-053.
&&

ABJ/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1030 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

AKZ017>029-251900-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
1030 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...STORMY WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS WEEK...|

A COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND...HEAVY RAIN...SNOW FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND HIGH SEAS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS WEEK.
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL START LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED 60 MPH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FROM CAPE DECISION TO METLAKATLA. PEAK WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
40 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO RISE AS HIGH AS 20
TO 25 FEET ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HEAVY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CAUSE GALES AND STORM FORCE GUSTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER SYSTEMS CAUSING THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WEEK. WHITE PASS WILL
BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE SNOW AT WHITE PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW COULD TURN TO RAIN THERE.
SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO AROUND 2000 FT AROUND JUNEAU TO AROUND 5000
FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SEVERAL FEET OF HEAVY NEW SNOW AT
EVEN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHILKAT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
MOUNTAINS MAY INCREASE THE AVALANCHE DANGER LATER THIS WEEK.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THE STORM TRACK LOOPS OVER WARMER REGIONS NEAR
HAWAII THEN TURNS TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. LONG RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS INDICATE A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER STARTING
ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND.

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every storm warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.