Small Craft Advisory 89, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
446 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR AN VERY ACTIVE
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW A WEAKENING TROF OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH THERE
IS A VERY STRONG 950MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS TO BE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT. A WAVE WILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL. THIS
SYSTEM IS VERY ENERGETIC WITH LOTS OF WARM MOIST AIR.
PRECIPITATIBLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION AS
THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND A VERY STRONG LLJ OF 50KT PLUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SO WITH THAT SAID THE WINDS AND RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN FROM THE UPPER TROF FROM THE
CURRENT SYSTEM OVER THE AREA DRIFTING EAST. THE RAIN AND WILL WILL
INCREASE TO BE ON THE WINDY SIDE THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS ALONG WITH PRECIP INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW NEAR
WHITE PASS AND HYDER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE DAY WITH 4-6
NEAR WHITE PASS AND 2-4 NEAR HYDER BY THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT 24HRS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. USED A
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECASTER PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MON NIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE AERE SEVERAL MECHANISMS FOR HIGH WIND MON
NIGHT AND TUES. ONE IS THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE
TO THE PANHANDLE COAST OVERNIGHT MON THAT MODELS INDICATE WILL
HAVE 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. BEHIND THAT SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
RAPID PRESSURE RISES DURING THE DAY TUES. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT PULLS NW DURING THE DAY...THE PRESSURE RISES
WILL MAKE FOR A PUSH OF WARM S WINDS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS
DURING THE DAY AND INTO LYNN CANAL BY TUES EVENING. THIS SURGE OF
WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE SNOW LEVEL TO RISE TO ABOUT 5000 FT
SOUTHERN PANAHANDLE AND ABOUT 2500 FT N PANHANDLE.

NOTEWORTHY PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY EACH
WAVE WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF LIQUID POSSIBLE BY THUR. THE HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS MAKES SNOW AMOUNTS TRICKY TO FORECAST BUT THE HIGHER
REACHES OF THE COASTAL RANGE SHOULD RECEIVE SEVERAL FEET OF NEW
SNOW BY THE WEEKEND.

FINALLY...THE PERSISTENT SLY FETCH OF WIND WILL GENERATE LARGE
SEAS OF 20-25 FEET. IMPACTS TO AVIATION AS WELL THIS WEEK WITH
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND ICING. THE LONG RANGE MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE NE PAC NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER TO OUR WEST AND ALLOW SE AK A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHTER WIND.

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HIGH ON THE GENERAL STORMINESS BUT THE
DETAILS OF EACH STRONG FRONTAL WAVE WILL HAVE TO BE HONED DURING
THE WEEK. UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR MON NIGHT TO THUR USING THE
EXISTING GRIDS...GFS AND EC. FORECASTS BEYOND THU MAINTAINED CLOSE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS NATIONAL CENTER GUIDANCE AND WERE
NOT CHANGED.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ023-026>028.
     STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
     STRONG WIND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
     GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033>036-042-043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-053.
&&

ABJ/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1030 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

AKZ017>029-251900-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
1030 PM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...STORMY WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS WEEK...|

A COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND...HEAVY RAIN...SNOW FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND HIGH SEAS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS WEEK.
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL START LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED 60 MPH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FROM CAPE DECISION TO METLAKATLA. PEAK WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
40 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO RISE AS HIGH AS 20
TO 25 FEET ALONG THE OUTER COAST. HEAVY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CAUSE GALES AND STORM FORCE GUSTS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER SYSTEMS CAUSING THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WEEK. WHITE PASS WILL
BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE SNOW AT WHITE PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW COULD TURN TO RAIN THERE.
SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE TO AROUND 2000 FT AROUND JUNEAU TO AROUND 5000
FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SEVERAL FEET OF HEAVY NEW SNOW AT
EVEN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHILKAT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
MOUNTAINS MAY INCREASE THE AVALANCHE DANGER LATER THIS WEEK.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THE STORM TRACK LOOPS OVER WARMER REGIONS NEAR
HAWAII THEN TURNS TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. LONG RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS INDICATE A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER STARTING
ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND.