Gale Warning 65, NWS Juneau, AK

406 
FZAK51 PAJK 251245
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-260100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE
TUE. A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
WEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-260100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ012-260100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

.TODAY...SOUTH WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ013-260100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ021-260100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-260100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 
9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-260100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-260100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-260100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. HIGHEST WINDS SOUTHERN AREA. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-260100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-260100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 8
FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ036-260100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 25 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO GALE 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
559 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...WET AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY AS A FRONT WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WEAKENING AS IT GOES. NOT A LOT OF WIND
WITH THIS FRONT AS BUOYS IN THE GULF HAVE ONLY REPORTED AROUND 30
TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT AND LAND OBS HAVE NOT HAD MANY GUSTS AT ALL SO
FAR. ALSO MOST OF THE RAIN IS STILL OFFSHORE AS OF 5 AM, EXCEPT
FOR YAKUTAT WHICH HAS HAD SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG IT THIS
MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS THIS MORNING HAD THE MOST TROUBLE WITH
WEAK WAVE AS THEY COULD NOT QUITE AGREE ON WHAT IT WOULD DO AS IT
MOVED NORTH. THE NAM WAS A LITTLE BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD
BEING SLOWER THEN MOST OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
GEM ALL SEEMED TO HAVE TIMING CLOSE BUT HAD SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES ON HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS,
AND ECMWF ON THIS AS THE STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WERE NOT THAT
SIGNIFICANT AND THE TIMING WAS CLOSE TO EACH OTHER. AS FOR THE
FORECAST THIS WAVE MAY INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT BRIEFLY INCREASES
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST SHOULD STAY BELOW STRONG WIND CRITERIA AS THE FRONT
FALLS APART BUT GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
THE WAVE PASSES BY.

THE FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL STILL BE FALLING APART TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT GALE FORCE FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND HAS
ITS LEADING BANDS START TO AFFECT THE OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS THEN THE LAST FRONT
PRODUCING 35 TO 40 KT WINDS IN THE GULF AS IT NEARS THE OUTER
COAST. AS FOR LAND AREAS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH GET INTO THE 50 TO
55 KT RANGE OVER THE OUTER COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. SO DECIDED TO
RAISE SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 27 AND 23 FOR LATE
TONIGHT AS GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

AS FOR PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW SO RAIN WILL
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE AT SEA LEVEL. ONLY THE UPPER REACHES OF
THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS AND HYDER MAY SEE SNOW. HOWEVER,
WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON A POTENTIAL HIGH WIND EVENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS THERE
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND THEN PEAK
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONE 27 AS A RESULT.
OVER THE GULF, HIGH END SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY GALES WILL EXTEND
FROM THE DIXON ENTRANCE ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST TO CAPE SUCKLING.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL MARINE ZONES WILL DIMINISH EVEN AS WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST REACH PEAK INTENSITY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO SKIP INLAND NORTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE EARLY MONDAY AND RE-FORM
OVER THE YUKON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
NORTH AND INLAND, EXPECT AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT THOUGH SHORT LIVED INCREASE IN WIND
SPEED OVER LYNN CANAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTICULAR. POST
FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES ALSO FAVOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT OVER
DOUGLAS ISLAND, SO HAVE INCLUDED SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
FOR THE JUNEAU AIRPORT TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH, LOOK FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STRONG FRONT
OVER THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PARENT LOW FOR THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST, SO NO HIGH WINDS FOR ANY PUBLIC ZONES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SECOND FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIP AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
FRONTS. SNOW LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH THAT BOTH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS
ARE HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGHWAYS. SNOW TOTALS FOR
THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY MONDAY NIGHT ARE SIGNIFICANT AND MAY REQUIRE
A WINTER STORM WATCH LATER TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE SECOND FRONT.

IN COORDINATION WITH WFO ANCHORAGE, USED THE 00Z CANADIAN NH MODE
FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. BLENDED ECMWF TO THE CANADIAN NH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES THEREAFTER. POP AND QPF UNCHANGED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY LOOK LIKE BOTH ELEMENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK.
UPDATED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT POP WITH CANADIAN NH. QPF
FROM THE CANADIAN AS WELL, BUT HIGHLY TRUNCATED. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ027.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ027.
     STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041>043-051-052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-034-035.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ053.
&&

EAL/FRITSCH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1118 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

AKZ017>029-250715-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
1118 AM AKST SUN JAN 24 2016

...STORMY WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS WEEK...

A COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW...AND HIGH
SEAS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS WEEK. WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO
40 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK LATER SUNDAY
THEN DIMINISH BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF STRONG WIND
SPEEDS WILL START AGAIN LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY
REACH 60 MPH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FROM ROUGHLY CAPE DECISION TO
METLAKATLA. PEAK WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO RISE AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 FEET ALONG THE
OUTER COAST. HEAVY SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER SYSTEMS CAUSING THE WIND WILL ALSO CAUSE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW THIS WEEK. BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RANGE FROM ABOUT 2000 FT AROUND JUNEAU TO ABOUT 5000 FEET OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PROLONGED PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH MID WEEK COULD RESULT IN 12 TO
18 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN HIGHWAY PASSES BETWEEN MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL FEET OF HEAVY NEW SNOW AT EVEN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CHILKAT AND NORTHERN COASTAL MOUNTAINS MAY
INCREASE THE AVALANCHE DANGER LATER THIS WEEK.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JETSTREAM
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THE STORM TRACK LOOPS OVER WARMER REGIONS NEAR
HAWAII THEN TURNS TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. LONG RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS INDICATE A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER STARTING
ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND.