Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED FROM WRN BC NW ACROSS
INTERIOR AK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E THROUGH SAT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES N ACROSS WRN AK. AS THIS OCCURS...A GALE FORCE
FRONT WILL ADVANCE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF TONIGHT...ENTERING THE
ERN GULF SAT MORNING...AND THEN STALLING ALONG THE CNTRL COAST OF
THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER AKZ017/YAKUTAT TONIGHT AS INTENSE MOISTURE
FLUX DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

STRONG SELY LLJ /50-60 KT PER HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE/ PROMOTING
INTENSE MOISTURE FLUX WILL ALSO AID IN GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH FROM
YAKUTAT SE ACROSS AKZ022-023-027. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE
YAKUTAT AREA AFTER FROPA /APPROX 15Z SAT/...AND REMAINDER OF THE
AFFECTED COASTAL ZONES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE
STALLING FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT...AGAIN SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT BY SAT AFTERNOON /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL/.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCELERATE OUT OF THE S THIS
EVENING OVER NRN LYNN CANAL...AND THEN SPREAD UPSLOPE ALONG THE
HAINES HIGHWAY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY
WET SNOW NEAR THE BORDER. AND THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PRECIP SHADOWING COULD OCCUR...MODEL SIGNAL IS LARGE ENOUGH TO
YIELD SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE FOR ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW FROM 06Z-21Z SAT. THEREAFTER...UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES AS WASHED OUT FRONT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN
PANHANDLE. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHITE PASS DURING SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE IN A SW TO NE ORIENTATION ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT SHEARS APART BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS
STRENGTHENING RESPONSE TO THE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMING
QUITE NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM OFF THE NW CONUS COAST TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH EAST AND
NORTHEAST OUTFLOW WIND PATTERNS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WINDS DOWN LYNN CANAL WILL BE APPROACHING GALE FORCE ON MONDAY
AS THE OFF SHORE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND SLOWS DOWN INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED SEAS SLIGHTLY FOR LYNN CANAL AND
NORTHERN CHATHAM DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL INCREASING THE WAVES IN
THE REGION.

LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITITATIONFOR THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA BY END
OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AS MORE OF
THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS START TO APPEAR MORE DUBIOUS ABOUT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TEND TO
DO GOOD WITH PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THIS AS THEY ARE ESTABLISHING
THEMSELVES AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE SOLUTION OF THE PATTERN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>035.

&&

GARNER/BEZENEK

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