Gale Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

047 
FZAK67 PAJK 021220
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-030100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SAT EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN SUN MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER B.C.
AND THE YUKON CAUSING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS TO DEVELOP. 

$$

PKZ310-030100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT...STRONGEST WIND WESTERN AREA. SEAS 21 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS A TALE OF TWO
FRONTS. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS DIEING OVER THE PANHANDLE AT THE
MOMENT. STILL SOME WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS GALES ARE STILL
BEING OBSERVED IN THE SE GULF AND SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH HAVE BEEN
SEEN AROUND CRAIG AND HYDABURG. MAIN PRECIP BANDS COVER MUCH OF
KUPREANOF, KUIU, AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLANDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT
RATES REPORTED. SOME SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THE EASTERN EDGES
OF THE PRECIP BANDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SENDING SOME COOL AIR THROUGH THE PASSES OF THE SE PANHANDLE. SOME
SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT HYDER AND SNOW HAS BEEN MIXING IN WITH
THE RAIN AROUND KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE OVERNIGHT.

FOR NEW YEARS DAY, THE DIEING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
GETS PUSHED WEST BY THE OUTFLOW COMING FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
HIGH. BY FRI EVENING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP BANDS SHOULD
BE RIGHT AROUND CHATHAM STRAIT. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THAT EDGE GETS, ESPECIALLY ON IF JUNEAU WILL
SEE SOME DRYING TONIGHT. DECIDED ON KEEPING SOME LIKELY POPS FOR
JUNEAU FOR LATE TONIGHT AS RATES MAY LIGHTEN UP BUT JUNEAU MAY NOT
DRY OUT COMPLETELY. FOR AREAS WEST OF THAT LINE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

MEANWHILE A SECOND GALE FORCE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
NE ACROSS THE GULF. IT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE FIRST DIEING
FRONT OVER THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT. EVEN WITH THIS MERGING OF
FRONTS, THE BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGH WILL STILL IMPEDE EASTWARD
PROGRESS AND SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT HELP MATTERS. AS
SUCH THE FRONT WILL ONLY GET AS FAR AS THE OUTER COAST BY LATE FRI
NIGHT WITH PRECIP BANDS REGAINING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS OVER WHERE
THE HIGH PUSHED THEM ON FRI.

IN ANY CASE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE MAKING A REAPPEARANCE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SOME OF THAT WIND WILL MAKE
IT TO THE OUTER COAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTH REACHES
40 TO 50 KT. STRONG WIND HEADLINES ARE UP FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS
WITH YAKUTAT IN PARTICULAR UNDER THE GUN ESPECIALLY DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RAIN WILL BE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. AREAS LIKE WHITE PASS AND THE HAINES HIGHWAY
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT HIGH RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT TERRAIN SHADOWING COULD LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS. NO
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS A RESULT BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN SOME PLACES.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOSTLY MINOR DETAIL
DIFFERENCES NOTED. DECIDED TO USE MOSTLY NAM AND GFS FOR UPDATES
WHERE NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND A N-S JET STEAK IS POINTED AT THE YAKUTAT/FAIRWEATHER REGION.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RAIN
TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN AND OUTER COASTAL AREAS AS
IT DRIFTS INLAND. THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LOOK TO BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW. AGAIN DOWNSLOPING WILL
LIMIT AMOUNTS THAT MAKE IT OVER THE CHILKAT RANGE...BUT PLACES
ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY MAY SEE 3-6 INCHES ON SATURDAY AND
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO THAT NIGHT AS THINGS WIND DOWN. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW NORMAL ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO RAIN MIXING IN AND
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE
PRECIP EVER REACHES THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE REGION. THINGS REALLY
START TO CHANGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND BUILDS UP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE THE B.C. HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
YUKON GIVING US A MORE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING SO NEGATIVE...FLOW
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL BE OFFSHORE ENOUGH THAT PRECIP DIMINISHES
ALL TOGETHER BY MONDAY.

SKIES WILL CLEAR UNDER THE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH AN INVERSION LIKELY TO
SET UP. THEREFORE EXPECT A COOLER MON/TUES MORNING. AND IF THE
INVERSION HOLDS THERE COULD BE FOG AND THAT WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT HOW MUCH IT IS ABLE TO WARM UP. THESE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS FOR
A TAKU WIND EVENT...BUT NOT EXPECTING WARNING LEVELS AS THE CROSS
BARRIER FLOW THAT IS NEEDED IS LESS CERTAIN.

MODEL SPREAD BECOMES LARGER TUESDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES DONT RETURN
UNTIL WED/THURS. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH AN EMPHASIS ON
THE GFS FOR WIND SPEED FOLLOWED BY LOCAL EDITS FOR OUTFLOW WINDS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ022-
     023.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>035-053.

&&

EAL/FERRIN

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