Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 2, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 2, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

972 
FZAK52 PAJK 021237
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SAT EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN SUN MORNING THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER B.C. AND THE
YUKON CAUSING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS TO DEVELOP.

$$

PKZ041-030100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEAS 27 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-030100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 27
FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO
13 FT LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-030100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OUT OF
CROSS SOUND...GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING
TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS
OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 1, 4:05 PM AKST, 11 hours 55 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED FROM WRN BC NW ACROSS
INTERIOR AK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E THROUGH SAT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES N ACROSS WRN AK. AS THIS OCCURS...A GALE FORCE
FRONT WILL ADVANCE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF TONIGHT...ENTERING THE
ERN GULF SAT MORNING...AND THEN STALLING ALONG THE CNTRL COAST OF
THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER AKZ017/YAKUTAT TONIGHT AS INTENSE MOISTURE
FLUX DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

STRONG SELY LLJ /50-60 KT PER HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE/ PROMOTING
INTENSE MOISTURE FLUX WILL ALSO AID IN GUSTS FROM 40-50 MPH FROM
YAKUTAT SE ACROSS AKZ022-023-027. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE
YAKUTAT AREA AFTER FROPA /APPROX 15Z SAT/...AND REMAINDER OF THE
AFFECTED COASTAL ZONES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE
STALLING FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT...AGAIN SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT BY SAT AFTERNOON /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL/.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCELERATE OUT OF THE S THIS
EVENING OVER NRN LYNN CANAL...AND THEN SPREAD UPSLOPE ALONG THE
HAINES HIGHWAY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY
WET SNOW NEAR THE BORDER. AND THOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PRECIP SHADOWING COULD OCCUR...MODEL SIGNAL IS LARGE ENOUGH TO
YIELD SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE FOR ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW FROM 06Z-21Z SAT. THEREAFTER...UPSLOPE FLOW
DIMINISHES AS WASHED OUT FRONT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN
PANHANDLE. SIMILAR SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE NEAR WHITE PASS DURING SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE IN A SW TO NE ORIENTATION ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT SHEARS APART BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS
STRENGTHENING RESPONSE TO THE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOMING
QUITE NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM OFF THE NW CONUS COAST TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH EAST AND
NORTHEAST OUTFLOW WIND PATTERNS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WINDS DOWN LYNN CANAL WILL BE APPROACHING GALE FORCE ON MONDAY
AS THE OFF SHORE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND SLOWS DOWN INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED SEAS SLIGHTLY FOR LYNN CANAL AND
NORTHERN CHATHAM DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL INCREASING THE WAVES IN
THE REGION.

LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITITATIONFOR THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA BY END
OF THE WEEK THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AS MORE OF
THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS START TO APPEAR MORE DUBIOUS ABOUT
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS TEND TO
DO GOOD WITH PATTERNS SIMILAR TO THIS AS THEY ARE ESTABLISHING
THEMSELVES AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE SOLUTION OF THE PATTERN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON AKST
     SATURDAY FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-036-041>043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>035.

&&

GARNER/BEZENEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.