Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
239 PM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES ARE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE EXCITING WEATHER OVER
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
STILL PERSIST FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
GRADUALLY BEEN DIMINISHING. SKAGWAY HAS FALLEN BELOW THE STRONG
WIND CRITERIA OF 40 MPH BUT STILL IS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WHILE WEAKENED, REMAINS PACKED ALONG
THE COAST MOUNTAINS SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
INTERIOR PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY. GALE
FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY AND BE THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE WEEKEND. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG
TERM...

USED THE 12Z NAM FOR UPDATES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N PAC IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW BY FRI NIGHT AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE AK
PENINSULA. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...AN OCCLUDED GALE FORCE FRONT
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE GULF...AND REACH THE PANHANDLE BY ROUGHLY
MIDDAY SAT. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER AN UPPER
RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE W COAST OF N AMERICA...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LIMIT ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO MAINTAINING A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY HIGH.

AFTER SAT...A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES ENTER THE REGION...EACH OF
WHICH GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...SHORTWAVE DETAILS ARE
VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...THE PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK APPEARS TO HERALD A TRANSITION BACK TO A WETTER AND MORE
MILD REGIME FOR THE PANHANDLE.

INHERITED LONG TERM GRIDS WERE GENERALLY MAINTAINED. NO CHANGE
WAS MADE TO PRESSURE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...TRANSITION TO WPC
OCCURRED BY 00Z TUE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED...WERE
NECESSARY...WITH AN ENSEMBLE BLEND OF COARSE RES MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041>043-051.

&&

TPS/GARNER

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