Gale Warning 32, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 8, 2016, 7:34 AM AKST (16:34 UTC)

Expired

Jan 8, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

8 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

042 
FZAK51 PAJK 081634 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-090100-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL PERSIST WHILE A GALE
FORCE FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-090100-
GLACIER BAY-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-090100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-090100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-090100-
ICY STRAIT-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-090100-
CROSS SOUND-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-090100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-090100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-090100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN LATE.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-090100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-090100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-090100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
734 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 8, 5:13 AM AKST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
513 AM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...A GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD IS ALREADY
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OUTER COAST AND THE ADVANCE NORTH AND
INLAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY LOW, BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BE A
STARK CONTRAST TO THE SUNNY WEATHER THAT SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAS
EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK. PRECIP WILL FOLLOW THE CLOUDS AND
BY LATE TONIGHT, LOOK FOR RAIN ALONG THE ENTIRE OUTER COAST FROM
THE DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE SUCKLING. IF THE FRONT PUSHES IN FAST
ENOUGH, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TONIGHT OVER SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS FROM WRANGELL NORTHWEST TO GUSTAVUS AND POINTS EAST.
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE MORE THAN AROUND AN INCH AT
MOST.

THE NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING
PANHANDLE WEATHER FOR THE PAST WEEK IS WEAKENING STEADILY. STRONG
WINDS IN SKAGWAY ENDED YESTERDAY, BUT NORTHERLY GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
HAVE CONTINUED ALL NIGHT. AM EXPECTING THOSE WINDS AND GUSTS TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST HAS NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE INNER CHANNELS
EXCEPT FOR CROSS SOUND. THERE, EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT 25 TO 30
KTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY OR NIGHT.
ON THE OUTSIDE, GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF OFFSHORE ZONE 310. GALES WILL SPREAD
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT, EVENTUALLY REACHING 40 KTS
OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT.

850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH IS WELL UNDERWAY AND ONCE
LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURS, THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL BREAK. LOOK
FOR SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS ONCE THAT OCCURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD BE AROUND
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM FORECAST UPDATED USING A BLEND OF CANADIAN NH, ECMWF,
AND GFS22 FOR PRESSURE AND WIND. POP AND QPF ADJUSTED USING THE
SAME THREE MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR FASTER FRONTAL PROGRESS. TEMPS
ADJUSTED PRIMARILY WITH GFS MOS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT...THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE ERN INNER CHANNELS SAT NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SPED UP
THIS FRONT BY ABOUT 6 HRS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON...BUT HERE THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING MORE.
ENDED UP USING THE 00Z GFS AS IT HAD GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. PUT IN MORE WPC FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT TO CREATE A SMOOTHER TRANSITION TO TUE WHEN FORECAST WAS
MOSTLY LEFT AS IS FROM THEN ONWARD. DID BLEND IN GFS/ECMWF FOR
POPS THOUGH FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT.

FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD PRETTY MUCH REACH ALL LAND
AREAS BY LATE SAT MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS FAIRLY
MILD TEMP WISE...SO PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. SOME SNOW MAY
OCCUR OVER THE FAR N AND E AREAS THOUGH WHERE SOME ACCESS TO
COLDER AIR FROM BC/YUKON WILL REMAIN. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SNOW THOUGH AS THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT COMES
INLAND. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE ERN INNER
CHANNELS SAT NIGHT AS FRONT CONTINUES WEAKENING IN THAT AREA.

FOR SUN...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE ERN
AREAS...SO PRECIP THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. PART OF THE ISSUE
IS WITH HOW MANY WAVES FORM ON THIS FRONT AND WHICH WAVES TURN
INTO MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOWS. STILL...LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY WET
AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAY STILL HAVE SOME SNOW OVER
THE FAR N AND HYDER AREAS...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH GIVEN
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WELL ANY REMAINING COLD AIR WILL HANG IN.

FOR TUE ONWARD...STILL LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A TYPICAL EL NINO PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC WITH STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS TO THE E-CENTRAL
PACIFIC SPLITTING INTO A SWLY JET INTO THE GULF OF AK AND A W-NWLY
JET THAT DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL SEND MORE LOWS/FRONTS
INTO THE GULF AND KEEP THINGS ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MUCH OF THE
COLD AIR STAYING WELL NE AND NW OF THE AREA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022.

&&

FRITSCH/RWT

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.