Small Craft Advisory 237, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ABOUT THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE
FRONTAL BAND IS SHEARING APART ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING AND THERE AN EXTRA IMPULSE ENERGY FROM
THE LOW SPINNING NORTH THROUGH HECATE STRAIT AND ALONG THE OUTER
WATER. ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH ALONG PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON... LIGHTNING DETECTION VIA THE SATELLITE WAS
SHOWING A HANDFUL OF STRIKES OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THIS
WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. LIGHTNING DETECTION IS SHOWING
SOME STARTING THERE AS WELL AND THIS WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP
AROUND PART OF THE LOW WILL EXPAND AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE UNDER HALF
INCH.

WIND WITH THE FRONT AND SECOND WRAP FEATURE BLOWING MAX SMALL
CRAFT TO A MIN GALE FORCE WITH THE FRONT AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN INNER CHANNEL GUSTY TODAY INTO THE 30S
AT TIMES... BUT GENERALLY THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...THERE ARE ONLY SMALL VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THAT
HAS DOMINATED THIS SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WINTER. AS
USUAL WE ARE WATCHING A STORM FORCE LOW AROUND 50N 150W OR SO THAT
HAS FRONTS THAT MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG OUR OUTER COAST
...SOMETIMES WITH GALE OR STORM FORCE LOWS ON THE FRONT. RIGHT
NOW THERE IS A TRIPLE POINT OFF CRESCENT CITY CA THAT WILL DEVELOP
INTO A STORM OFF VANCOUVER ISL. THE VARIATION IS THAT THIS CENTER
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN INLAND OVER CENTRAL B.C. ON THU AS THE OTHER
LOW RECURVES BACK TO KODIAK. SO WE GET BURSTS OF SOME WIND ALONG
THE COAST BUT NOT SEEING ANY HEAVY RAIN AT ALL CAUSE THERE IS
NOTHING TO FOCUS A PERSISTENT STREAM OF MOISTURE. EACH ONE BRINGS
A SLUG OF WARM AIR TOO WHICH IS THE CURSE OF ME GETTING NEW SKIS
THIS YEAR. THERE IS AN UP SIDE: WHEN WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME DRY AIR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE PANHANDLE NOT
HAVING RAIN THU DAYTIME AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN THAT THERE ARE ALWAYS TIMING CHALLENGES FOR A
PATTERN LIKE THIS. USED 08/12Z GFS FOR WED NITE INTO FRI THEN
LIKED THE WPC APPROACH FOR DAYS 4-8. TOOK A LOOK AT 5-WAVE PATTERN
OFF 08/12Z ECMWF WELL INTO FUTURE AND THERE IS SOME HINT OF A
PATTERN CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK. REAL SKETCHY TO PLACE A BET ON
THAT KNOWING THE WATER TEMPS OFF B.C. BUT ONE CAN ALWAYS HOPE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033-035-036-041-042-052.
&&

BEZENEK/JC

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