Gale Warning 158, NWS Juneau, AK

267 
FZAK52 PAJK 091232
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100100-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THEN
DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-100100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO
15 FT LATE. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-100100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. SW SWELL. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-100100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-100100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-100100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 PM AKST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ABOUT THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE
FRONTAL BAND IS SHEARING APART ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING AND THERE AN EXTRA IMPULSE ENERGY FROM
THE LOW SPINNING NORTH THROUGH HECATE STRAIT AND ALONG THE OUTER
WATER. ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH ALONG PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON... LIGHTNING DETECTION VIA THE SATELLITE WAS
SHOWING A HANDFUL OF STRIKES OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THIS
WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH TOWARD HAIDA GWAII. LIGHTNING DETECTION IS SHOWING
SOME STARTING THERE AS WELL AND THIS WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP
AROUND PART OF THE LOW WILL EXPAND AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER AND
SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE UNDER HALF
INCH.

WIND WITH THE FRONT AND SECOND WRAP FEATURE BLOWING MAX SMALL
CRAFT TO A MIN GALE FORCE WITH THE FRONT AND DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERN INNER CHANNEL GUSTY TODAY INTO THE 30S
AT TIMES... BUT GENERALLY THE WINDS WILL BE UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVEL.

.LONG TERM...THERE ARE ONLY SMALL VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THAT
HAS DOMINATED THIS SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WINTER. AS
USUAL WE ARE WATCHING A STORM FORCE LOW AROUND 50N 150W OR SO THAT
HAS FRONTS THAT MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG OUR OUTER COAST
...SOMETIMES WITH GALE OR STORM FORCE LOWS ON THE FRONT. RIGHT
NOW THERE IS A TRIPLE POINT OFF CRESCENT CITY CA THAT WILL DEVELOP
INTO A STORM OFF VANCOUVER ISL. THE VARIATION IS THAT THIS CENTER
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN INLAND OVER CENTRAL B.C. ON THU AS THE OTHER
LOW RECURVES BACK TO KODIAK. SO WE GET BURSTS OF SOME WIND ALONG
THE COAST BUT NOT SEEING ANY HEAVY RAIN AT ALL CAUSE THERE IS
NOTHING TO FOCUS A PERSISTENT STREAM OF MOISTURE. EACH ONE BRINGS
A SLUG OF WARM AIR TOO WHICH IS THE CURSE OF ME GETTING NEW SKIS
THIS YEAR. THERE IS AN UP SIDE: WHEN WE GET BETWEEN SYSTEMS WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME DRY AIR FOR A GOOD PART OF THE PANHANDLE NOT
HAVING RAIN THU DAYTIME AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE IN THAT THERE ARE ALWAYS TIMING CHALLENGES FOR A
PATTERN LIKE THIS. USED 08/12Z GFS FOR WED NITE INTO FRI THEN
LIKED THE WPC APPROACH FOR DAYS 4-8. TOOK A LOOK AT 5-WAVE PATTERN
OFF 08/12Z ECMWF WELL INTO FUTURE AND THERE IS SOME HINT OF A
PATTERN CHANGE LATER NEXT WEEK. REAL SKETCHY TO PLACE A BET ON
THAT KNOWING THE WATER TEMPS OFF B.C. BUT ONE CAN ALWAYS HOPE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 3 AM AKST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033-035-036-041-042-052.
&&

BEZENEK/JC

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU