Gale Warning 159, NWS Juneau, AK

084 
FZAK51 PAJK 100049
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-101400-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU. AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PULL NW INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. ANOTHER
LOW TO THE S WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL BC COAST WED NIGHT AND
MOVE ASHORE THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NW CANADA.  

$$

PKZ011-101400-
GLACIER BAY-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-101400-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-101400-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 2 FT
OR LESS BUILDING TO 4 FT LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-101400-
ICY STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ022-101400-
CROSS SOUND-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
S SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SE
SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-101400-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-101400-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ033-101400-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT
13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 5 FT...
EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ034-101400-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ035-101400-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING...
THEN BECOMING NE 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-101400-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 PM AKST WED MAR 9 2016 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...THEN
BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
545 AM AKST WED MAR 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL HAVE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND HIGHER GUSTS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, THEN WEAKEN
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. SHOWER ACTIVITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY EVENING, AT AROUND 6 PM LOCAL TIME, AS ONE OF THE
STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
HYDABURG SEAPLANE BASE REPORTED A WIND GUSTS OF 61 MPH.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED 6 DEGREES, FROM 45 DEGREES TO 39 DEGREES IN 20
MINUTES. THE HIGH WIND GUST MAY BE CAUSED BY A WET MICROBURST, AS
THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE WAS RELATIVELY MOIST AND THE
MID-LEVEL WINDS WERE FAIRLY STRONG. THE MELTING OF ICE PARTICLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY ALSO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE POTENTIAL WET
MICROBURST.

AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE HAVE SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH TODAY. PATCHY FOG ALSO FORMED IN AREAS WITH BREAKS IN THE
SKY COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH THE LOW REMAINING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AND HIGH OVER INTERIOR
BC, A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. BY LATE
TONIGHT, ANOTHER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE REORIENTED SUCH THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTHERLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.

UTILIZE ECMWF IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT
AVERAGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF ON THURSDAY BECOMES QUASI
STATIONARY IN THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME A SECOND LOW MOVES UP FROM THE NE PACIFIC
TRACKING SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. REMNANTS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE
NE GULF AND DISSIPATE. THE SECOND LOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT SECONDARY WRAP JUST HITS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THURSDAY EVENING. TO THE WEST A THIRD LOW THAT HAS BEEN
TRACKING EAST FROM KAMCHATKA WILL CROSS OVER THE ALEUTIANS THEN
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK WITH FIRST FRONTAL BAND HITTING THE PANHANDLE
FRIDAY AND SECOND BANDS HITTING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE
LOW MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS. AS THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD HAIDA GWAII
EXPECT A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

850 MB TEMPERATURES NOT SHOWING MUCH VARIATION COMPARED TO CURRENT
AIRMASS, SO WHILE A BASE LINE HIGH AND LOW STILL IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 30S REMAINS THE SAME DIURNAL VARIATION WILL BE MORE
IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER. THE CLEARER NIGHTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE WEEKEND TO THE NORTH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROPS TEMPS
INTO THE 20S WHILE DAY TIME HIGHS MAY NUDGE BIT CLOSER TO 50.
AFTER A DRY THURSDAY THE COMBINATION FOR FRONTAL BANDS MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL MOVE IN PRECIP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BUT DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE PARENT LOWS AND THE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PANHANDLE WIT CHANCE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THE DRY
PERIOD EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT
MUCH IN WAY OF QPF WITH THESE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ONLY A
FEW TENTHS.

MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE WINDS OVER THE GULF FROM
THE FRONTS AND OVER THE PANHANDLE AND INNER CHANNELS MAINLY DUE TO
PRESSURE GRADIENT. OVER THE GULF WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GALE FORCE BARRIER JET BY
FRIDAY IN THE NE GULF. THESE WINDS DROP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BUT THE PICK UP AGAIN OVER THE SE GULF DUE TO THE LOW TRACKING
FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS DROP OFF BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY AND
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCES NORTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS,
MAINLY TO THE NORTH. OUTFLOW GRADIENT AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW
SETTING UP JUNEAU FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ON THURSDAY. INVERSION MAY BE
A BIT LOW BUT CRITICAL LEVEL LOOKS FAVORABLE IN THE MORNING. FOR
NOW THINK HIGHER WINDS ARE ELEVATION BUT NO TRUE TAKU EVENT.
AFTER A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS FLIP BACK TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN HIGH OVER YUKON THE THE HAIDA GWAII LOW WHILE
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY DUE TO GEOSTROPHIC FLOW.

EARLY ON 00Z GFS/ECMWF WILL MORE IN LINE. NAM WAS CLOSE BUT WAS
BIT FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS IN AND OUT. UPDATED GRIDS TO DAY 4
USING THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND THEN KEPT WITH WPC. HOWEVER NEWER
GFS/ECMWF WERE SHOWING A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER THAN WPC AND
BIT FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF NEXT RUNS STILL HAVE THIS
SAME SOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>033-035-036-041-
     042-052.
&&

RCL/PRB

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU