Gale Warning 48, NWS Juneau, AK

714 
FZAK51 PAJK 171924 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-180100-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A FAST MOVING STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN
PROGRESS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-180100-
GLACIER BAY-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-180100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW LATE. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-180100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-180100-
ICY STRAIT-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ022-180100-
CROSS SOUND-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-180100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-180100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-180100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SE SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-180100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-180100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-180100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1024 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO
9 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CHARACTERIZED BY
A STRONG ZONE OF ASCENT LOCATED IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM A
DEEP LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE...WAS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING NE
ACROSS THE NERN PAC SAT AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY W OF HAIDA GWAII AT 00Z MON...AND
THEN PIVOT NNW ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUN NIGHT. A DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT BENEATH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WITH
MINIMUM CNTRL PRESSURE AROUND 968 MB LATE SUN AFTERNOON...THEN
FILLING TO 976 MB LATE SUN NIGHT.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70 KT 925 MB JET WRAPPING AROUND THE
ERN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH WILL AID IN STORM
FORCE WINDS SPREADING THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND ACROSS MARINE
ZONE 41 SUN AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING SUN OVER
AKZ027...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ESELY FLOW FROM 50-60 KT AT A
HALF KM AGL...WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGH WIND GUSTS TO 60-65
MPH...THUS AN UPGRADE TO WARNING HAS BEEN MADE. HIGH WIND GUSTS
OVER AKZ028 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LOW BEING POSITIONED
FARTHER W OVER THE SERN GULF. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE MAINTAINED.

ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NNW OVER THE
ERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ELY WINDS GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH ALSO
APPEAR PROBABLE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS SITKA AND JUNEAU/DOUGLAS...AS
WELL AS SKAGWAY /ALBEIT OUT OF THE N/.

GIVEN THE STRONG OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AS WELL
AS STRONGER ASCENT REMAINING OVER THE GULF...PRECIPITATION IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT CHANGED...THOUGH WINDS WERE
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE HI-RES ARW OVER THE GULF. POP/QPF WERE
KEPT RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CAVEATS.

.LONG TERM...A RATHER PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS AND A WEST TO EAST JETSTREAM AROUND 40N
LATITUDE KEEPS THE MAIN STORM TRACK AIMED WELL SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER SEVERAL SURFACE FRONTS WILL SPLIT OFF THE STORM
TRACK AND LIFT NWD AND AFFECT THE PANHANDLE SEVERAL TIMES IN THE
WEEK AHEAD..LOOKS LIKE TUE AND POSSIBLY THU-FRI.

THE STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION WILL REACH THE
NE GULF SUN EVENING INTO MON MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE A
NOTEWORTHY STORM BUT WEAKENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL STEER ANOTHER BUT WEAKER SYSTEM NWD ALONG OUR COAST ALONG AN
ALMOST IDENTICAL PATH EARLY TUE. WITH HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DIRECTED OFFSHORE AND STRONGEST THROUGH
E-W CHANNELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIPS BY MID WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS HINT AT
A BREAK IN BETWEEN FRONTS AND LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP WED-THU WITH
WEAKER SSW FLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES MID WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE REPOSITIONING OF THE ALEAUTIAN UPPER LOW FARTHER
EAST INTO THE GULF. DECIDED TO FOLLOW EXISTING FOPRECASTS FOR
NOW AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-042-043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-035-051.

&&

GARNER/TA

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