Gale Warning 47, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 17, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Jan 17, 2016, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

559 
FZAK52 PAJK 171222
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-180100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A FAST MOVING STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN
PROGRESS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF
SUNDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-180100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 27 FT
SUBSIDING TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-180100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E GALE TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-180100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-180100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-180100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. 
.MON...E GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 16, 4:05 PM AKST, 11 hours 55 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
405 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CHARACTERIZED BY
A STRONG ZONE OF ASCENT LOCATED IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM A
DEEP LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE...WAS OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY EJECTING NE
ACROSS THE NERN PAC SAT AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY W OF HAIDA GWAII AT 00Z MON...AND
THEN PIVOT NNW ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUN NIGHT. A DEEP SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL BE PRESENT BENEATH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...WITH
MINIMUM CNTRL PRESSURE AROUND 968 MB LATE SUN AFTERNOON...THEN
FILLING TO 976 MB LATE SUN NIGHT.

HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70 KT 925 MB JET WRAPPING AROUND THE
ERN AND NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH WILL AID IN STORM
FORCE WINDS SPREADING THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND ACROSS MARINE
ZONE 41 SUN AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURING SUN OVER
AKZ027...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ESELY FLOW FROM 50-60 KT AT A
HALF KM AGL...WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGH WIND GUSTS TO 60-65
MPH...THUS AN UPGRADE TO WARNING HAS BEEN MADE. HIGH WIND GUSTS
OVER AKZ028 ARE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LOW BEING POSITIONED
FARTHER W OVER THE SERN GULF. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
BE MAINTAINED.

ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NNW OVER THE
ERN GULF SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ELY WINDS GUSTING TO 40-50 MPH ALSO
APPEAR PROBABLE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS SITKA AND JUNEAU/DOUGLAS...AS
WELL AS SKAGWAY /ALBEIT OUT OF THE N/.

GIVEN THE STRONG OFFSHORE COMPONENT IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AS WELL
AS STRONGER ASCENT REMAINING OVER THE GULF...PRECIPITATION IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS WERE NOT CHANGED...THOUGH WINDS WERE
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE HI-RES ARW OVER THE GULF. POP/QPF WERE
KEPT RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CAVEATS.

.LONG TERM...A RATHER PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS AND A WEST TO EAST JETSTREAM AROUND 40N
LATITUDE KEEPS THE MAIN STORM TRACK AIMED WELL SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER SEVERAL SURFACE FRONTS WILL SPLIT OFF THE STORM
TRACK AND LIFT NWD AND AFFECT THE PANHANDLE SEVERAL TIMES IN THE
WEEK AHEAD..LOOKS LIKE TUE AND POSSIBLY THU-FRI.

THE STORM FORCE LOW IN THE SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION WILL REACH THE
NE GULF SUN EVENING INTO MON MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE A
NOTEWORTHY STORM BUT WEAKENING. THE PERSISTENT S-SW FLOW ALOFT
WILL STEER ANOTHER BUT WEAKER SYSTEM NWD ALONG OUR COAST ALONG AN
ALMOST IDENTICAL PATH EARLY TUE. WITH HIGHER PRESSURE INLAND THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE DIRECTED OFFSHORE AND STRONGEST THROUGH
E-W CHANNELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIPS BY MID WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS HINT AT
A BREAK IN BETWEEN FRONTS AND LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP WED-THU WITH
WEAKER SSW FLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES MID WEEK
WITH POSSIBLE REPOSITIONING OF THE ALEAUTIAN UPPER LOW FARTHER
EAST INTO THE GULF. DECIDED TO FOLLOW EXISTING FOPRECASTS FOR
NOW AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ028.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-042-043-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-035-051.

&&

GARNER/TA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.