Small Craft Advisory 240, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKST Thu Nov 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models are similar with upper level features. Mesoscale features
differ widely. Cold upper level low parked about 300 nm north of
Wrangel Island. This feature will drop south to near Wrangel
Island Sat morning. Very cold arctic air will pour into Eastern
Russia and make it about as far east as the Bering Strait.

As the first occluded wave approaches the Arctic Coast and the
winds begin to increase along the the Arctic Coast from Cape
Halkett east, visibility is likely to begin to decrease in snow
and blowing snow later tonight. Conditions will spread west to
around near Utqiagvik by late tonight.

As the first occluded wave moved north, it ushered in very warm
temperatures to the Central Interior. The second wave appears to
be losing steam as it approaches from the southeast. A freezing
rain advisory had been issued for the Middle Tanana valley and
from Birch Lake northwestward. The GFS indicated no QPF for the
area at all but the the NAM indicated a decent amount of QPF for
this area. It was not believed that the QPF would be that large
but seemed reasonable that at least trace amounts of freezing rain
should fall. Conditions do not seem as likely at the moment but
the possibility still does exist this evening for at least trace
amounts of freezing rain.

The West Coast will continue to see strong winds, particularly
through the Bering Strait. Given the cold air pouring south from
the cold upper low moving over the relatively warm Bering Strait,
it is likely that there will be numerous ocean effect snow
showers through the weekend.

Expect colder air to move into the Interior of Northern Alaska by
Mon night or Tue with a system to move eastward across the area
with a little snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Rain Advisory for AKZ222-AKZ223.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235.
&&

CF NOV 16