Small Craft Advisory 239, NWS Fairbanks, AK

554 
FZAK51 PAFG 111319
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-120030-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO WRANGEL
ISLAND AS A 1005 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT... AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH.
A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA 
WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA TO PRUDHOE BAY THEN EAST BY 3PM
FRI...TO THE YUKON DELTA TO BARROW TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM
SAT...AND THEN DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ225-120030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-120030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-120030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-120030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-120030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

NOV 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
259 PM AKST Thu Nov 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Models are similar with upper level features. Mesoscale features
differ widely. Cold upper level low parked about 300 nm north of
Wrangel Island. This feature will drop south to near Wrangel
Island Sat morning. Very cold arctic air will pour into Eastern
Russia and make it about as far east as the Bering Strait.

As the first occluded wave approaches the Arctic Coast and the
winds begin to increase along the the Arctic Coast from Cape
Halkett east, visibility is likely to begin to decrease in snow
and blowing snow later tonight. Conditions will spread west to
around near Utqiagvik by late tonight.

As the first occluded wave moved north, it ushered in very warm
temperatures to the Central Interior. The second wave appears to
be losing steam as it approaches from the southeast. A freezing
rain advisory had been issued for the Middle Tanana valley and
from Birch Lake northwestward. The GFS indicated no QPF for the
area at all but the the NAM indicated a decent amount of QPF for
this area. It was not believed that the QPF would be that large
but seemed reasonable that at least trace amounts of freezing rain
should fall. Conditions do not seem as likely at the moment but
the possibility still does exist this evening for at least trace
amounts of freezing rain.

The West Coast will continue to see strong winds, particularly
through the Bering Strait. Given the cold air pouring south from
the cold upper low moving over the relatively warm Bering Strait,
it is likely that there will be numerous ocean effect snow
showers through the weekend.

Expect colder air to move into the Interior of Northern Alaska by
Mon night or Tue with a system to move eastward across the area
with a little snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Rain Advisory for AKZ222-AKZ223.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235.
&&

CF NOV 16