Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 21, NWS Fairbanks, AK

240 
FZAK69 PAFG 120039
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-121500-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM NEAR A LINE FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO BARROW
TO BARTER ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ500-121500-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-121500-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FREEZING FOG THROUGH THE NIGHT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ510-121500-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
339 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FREEZING FOG. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

NOV 16

890 
FZAK69 PAFG 121220
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
320 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-130300-
320 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SLOWLY DRIFT S
WITH A 1006 MB CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 77N 165W BY SUN MORNING. A
TROUGH WITH 998 MB CENTERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
THE CENTERS WILL DRIFT TOWARD WRANGEL ISLAND. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IT WILL PUSH S OVER THE AREA MON MORNING WITH
WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ500-130300-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
320 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-130300-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
320 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

PKZ510-130300-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
320 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

SDB NOV 16

749 
FZAK69 PAFG 122302
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
202 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-131500-
202 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SLOWLY DRIFT S
WITH A 1002 MB CENTER DEVELOPING NEAR 77N 165W BY SUN MORNING. A
TROUGH WITH 999 MB CENTERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
THE CENTERS WILL DRIFT TOWARD WRANGEL ISLAND SUN MORNING AND THEN
TO 150 NW W OF WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 993 MB LOW. AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD...IT WILL PUSH S OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
MON MORNING WITH WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ500-131500-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
202 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-131500-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
202 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ510-131500-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
202 PM AKST SAT NOV 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

NOV 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
425 AM AKST Fri Nov 11 2016

SYNOPSIS...
Aloft...
The long wave pattern consisting of a high amplitude trough
stretching from the Chukchi Sea south across eastern Bering Sea
into the Gulf of Alaska with a ridge over NW Canada will persist
through the weekend and then start to retrograde next week. This
means that well above normal temperatures will continue across all
of Northern Alaska into early next week.

A series of short wave troughs and associated occluded fronts
will move north over the Interior and North Slope of Alaska
through the weekend in this southerly flow aloft between the ridge
and trough. This will bring periods of snow with each feature with
the exception of the downslope area of the Interior just north of
the Alaska Range. There will a chance of freezing rain in the the
Alaska Range and southeast Interior through the weekend as well
due to the very warm temperatures there.

Surface...
A 1002 mb low 300 nm north of Wrangel Island will move to Wrangel
Island as a 1005 mb low by 3am Sat... and then drift slowly
south. An arctic cold front stretching from the low to just west
of Point Hope to Anadyr will move to Point Hope to the Bering
Strait to Gambell by 3pm Fri...to Point Hope to the Bering Strait
to Savoonga by 3am Sat...to Point Hope to Shishmaref to just east
of St Matthew Island by 3pm Sat...and to Cape Lisburne to Kotzebue
to the Yukon Delta by 3pm Sun. Significant cold air along the
front with 850 MB temperatures of -12C or Colder will cause super
adiabatic lapse rates along with strong mixing of winds to the
surface. Will see north winds 30-40kt along the front through Sat
that will decrease Sun. Will see numerous ocean effect snow
showers along the front as well along north facing coasts. Will
see freezing spray blowing onto north facing shores as well that
could cause ice accumulation new Point Hope...in the Bering Strait
and St Lawrence Island.

An occluded front stretching from Anchorage to Minto to Arctic
Village will move to Denali Park to Prudhoe Bay then east by 3pm
Fri...to Atqasuk to Barter Island to Denali by 3am Sat...to Barrow
to Barter Island by 3pm Sat...and then dissipating through Sun.
There will be light snow along the front south of the Brooks Range
tapering off this afternoon. Could see isolated freezing rain
showers today from Denali to Fairbanks. Expect several inches
over the North Slope today with the front. This combined with
strong east winds over the north slope is causing low visibility
in blowing snow today that will improve this afternoon and evening
as winds decrease.

A weather front moving north across the Gulf Of Alaska Sat and
over the southern Interior Sun will bring a chance of snow and
freezing rain to the Alaska Range and southern Interior Sat night
and Sun along with increasing winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models Initialize well and show similar solutions over northern
Alaska through Sun. Start to see difference on mesoscale feature
strength and speed of movement next week. Will go with GFS for
details which has been doing well the past several days.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ213.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB NOV 16