Small Craft Advisory 237, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1236 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z models suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
limited in the short range and is reasonable in the mid range
however model spread on feature strength, track and position
remains large in the extended range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a long wave trough remains over the high arctic
stretching from near the pole southward through the Bering Strait
and into the central Aleutian Islands. A large amplitude ridge
over the west coast of North America northward to the Yukon. a 493
DAM low remains anchored in the Gulf of Alaska and continues to
have short waves rotate around it moving north along the back side
of the upper level ridge over the Yukon.

The first short wave in a series moves north and west over the
eastern Alaska Range and southern interior Thursday night and into
the central interior Friday. Expect winds to increase along and
through the passes in the Alaska Range tonight and will remain
gusty but below advisory criteria Thursday. Winds will diminish as
the front passes north and westward into the central interior
Thursday evening.

Moisture will increase over the interior with the frontal system
moving in from the southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska. The upper
and middle Tanana Valley will likely remain drier as compared to
areas north of Fairbanks Thursday evening as down sloping winds
off of the Alaska range will hinder precipitation production in
these areas. To the north and west of Fairbanks expect several
inches of snow beginning Thursday evening as moisture overruns
the arctic front over the northern interior. Snow amounts are
expected to remain below advisory levels however gusty winds may
bring areas of blowing snow and lower visibilities over interior
highway summits to the north of Fairbanks. Expect snow
accumulations in the 1 to 3 inches range to the north of
Fairbanks while around an inch expected to the from Fairbanks
south. Model sounding guidance continues indicate a slight chance
of light freezing rain tomorrow evening as the precipitation
begins near Fairbanks and will need monitor this potential on
subsequent model runs.

Northerly and northeasterly winds will increase along the west
coast as the low in the Gulf of Alaska moves northwest creating a
strong gradient with the 1032 MB high pressure system over
Siberia. Gale fore winds will continue over much of the Bering
Strait and wind gusts to around 40 mph developing along the west
coast to the south of the Seward Peninsula Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...North winds in the 30 to
40 kt range in the Bering Strait and over St Lawrence Island will
cause elevated surf in those areas along the possible freezing
spray causing ice built up on north facing shores in these areas.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ235-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC NOV 16