Gale Warning 134, NWS Fairbanks, AK

941 
FZAK52 PAFG 110022
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
322 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-111500-
322 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1002 MB LOW 500 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
TO WRANGELL ISLAND BY FRI AND DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST. A STRONG WEATHER
FRONT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE YUKON DELTA
TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM FRI AND THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ200-111500-
NORTON SOUND-
322 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-111500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
322 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-111500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
322 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-111500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
322 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

NOV 16

186 
FZAK52 PAFG 111323
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
423 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-120030-
423 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WILL
MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA TO PRUDHOE BAY THEN EAST BY 3PM FRI...TO
THE YUKON DELTA TO BARROW TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM SAT...AND THEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST.

$$

PKZ200-120030-
NORTON SOUND-
423 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-120030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
423 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-120030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
423 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS TO 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-120030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
423 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY
LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

NOV 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1236 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z models suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
limited in the short range and is reasonable in the mid range
however model spread on feature strength, track and position
remains large in the extended range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a long wave trough remains over the high arctic
stretching from near the pole southward through the Bering Strait
and into the central Aleutian Islands. A large amplitude ridge
over the west coast of North America northward to the Yukon. a 493
DAM low remains anchored in the Gulf of Alaska and continues to
have short waves rotate around it moving north along the back side
of the upper level ridge over the Yukon.

The first short wave in a series moves north and west over the
eastern Alaska Range and southern interior Thursday night and into
the central interior Friday. Expect winds to increase along and
through the passes in the Alaska Range tonight and will remain
gusty but below advisory criteria Thursday. Winds will diminish as
the front passes north and westward into the central interior
Thursday evening.

Moisture will increase over the interior with the frontal system
moving in from the southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska. The upper
and middle Tanana Valley will likely remain drier as compared to
areas north of Fairbanks Thursday evening as down sloping winds
off of the Alaska range will hinder precipitation production in
these areas. To the north and west of Fairbanks expect several
inches of snow beginning Thursday evening as moisture overruns
the arctic front over the northern interior. Snow amounts are
expected to remain below advisory levels however gusty winds may
bring areas of blowing snow and lower visibilities over interior
highway summits to the north of Fairbanks. Expect snow
accumulations in the 1 to 3 inches range to the north of
Fairbanks while around an inch expected to the from Fairbanks
south. Model sounding guidance continues indicate a slight chance
of light freezing rain tomorrow evening as the precipitation
begins near Fairbanks and will need monitor this potential on
subsequent model runs.

Northerly and northeasterly winds will increase along the west
coast as the low in the Gulf of Alaska moves northwest creating a
strong gradient with the 1032 MB high pressure system over
Siberia. Gale fore winds will continue over much of the Bering
Strait and wind gusts to around 40 mph developing along the west
coast to the south of the Seward Peninsula Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...North winds in the 30 to
40 kt range in the Bering Strait and over St Lawrence Island will
cause elevated surf in those areas along the possible freezing
spray causing ice built up on north facing shores in these areas.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ235-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC NOV 16