Gale Warning 133, NWS Fairbanks, AK

594 
FZAK51 PAFG 110023
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
323 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-111500-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1002 MB LOW 500 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
TO WRANGELL ISLAND BY FRI AND DISSIPATE. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO
BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM FRI AND THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ225-111500-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-111500-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-111500-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-111500-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-111500-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

NOV 16

554 
FZAK51 PAFG 111319
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-120030-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1002 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO WRANGEL
ISLAND AS A 1005 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT... AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH.
A WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA 
WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA TO PRUDHOE BAY THEN EAST BY 3PM
FRI...TO THE YUKON DELTA TO BARROW TO BARTER ISLAND BY 3PM
SAT...AND THEN DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ225-120030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-120030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-120030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-120030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-120030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
419 AM AKST FRI NOV 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS
THAN 1 NM. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

NOV 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1236 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z models suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread remains
limited in the short range and is reasonable in the mid range
however model spread on feature strength, track and position
remains large in the extended range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a long wave trough remains over the high arctic
stretching from near the pole southward through the Bering Strait
and into the central Aleutian Islands. A large amplitude ridge
over the west coast of North America northward to the Yukon. a 493
DAM low remains anchored in the Gulf of Alaska and continues to
have short waves rotate around it moving north along the back side
of the upper level ridge over the Yukon.

The first short wave in a series moves north and west over the
eastern Alaska Range and southern interior Thursday night and into
the central interior Friday. Expect winds to increase along and
through the passes in the Alaska Range tonight and will remain
gusty but below advisory criteria Thursday. Winds will diminish as
the front passes north and westward into the central interior
Thursday evening.

Moisture will increase over the interior with the frontal system
moving in from the southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska. The upper
and middle Tanana Valley will likely remain drier as compared to
areas north of Fairbanks Thursday evening as down sloping winds
off of the Alaska range will hinder precipitation production in
these areas. To the north and west of Fairbanks expect several
inches of snow beginning Thursday evening as moisture overruns
the arctic front over the northern interior. Snow amounts are
expected to remain below advisory levels however gusty winds may
bring areas of blowing snow and lower visibilities over interior
highway summits to the north of Fairbanks. Expect snow
accumulations in the 1 to 3 inches range to the north of
Fairbanks while around an inch expected to the from Fairbanks
south. Model sounding guidance continues indicate a slight chance
of light freezing rain tomorrow evening as the precipitation
begins near Fairbanks and will need monitor this potential on
subsequent model runs.

Northerly and northeasterly winds will increase along the west
coast as the low in the Gulf of Alaska moves northwest creating a
strong gradient with the 1032 MB high pressure system over
Siberia. Gale fore winds will continue over much of the Bering
Strait and wind gusts to around 40 mph developing along the west
coast to the south of the Seward Peninsula Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...North winds in the 30 to
40 kt range in the Bering Strait and over St Lawrence Island will
cause elevated surf in those areas along the possible freezing
spray causing ice built up on north facing shores in these areas.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-
PKZ235-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

CCC NOV 16