Small Craft Advisory 150, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
154 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 00z models initialized well against the 00z analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread is minimal in
the short range and reasonable in the mid range however
considerable spread both between model runs and between model
families exists in the long range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, an 535 DAM low centered over Galena continues
to slowly weaken and drift to the northeast as an upper level
ridge currently along a cold bay to to St Paul Island line builds
north and east to be along a Bristol Bay to St Lawrence line
Tuesday afternoon and along a Kodiak to Nome line Wednesday
morning. The 586 DAM low weakens to 540 DAM over the central
Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon and opens to a trough over
northeast Alaska.

Strong chinook flow over the Alaska Range has subsided and has
turned to the west southwest and has brought a return to widespread
rain showers over the over the central and eastern interior.
Winter Storm Warnings along the north slopes of the Brooks Range
continue through Wednesday morning as favorable upper level
conditions persist as the upper level low passes over the northern
interior. Mid levels favorable for upslope today through tonight
over the central and eastern portions of the south facing slopes of
the Brooks Range especially near Atigun Pass where 4 to 8 inches
of snow is expected through wednesday morning. Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for these areas.

Gusty winds continue along the north slope especially along the
coast to the east of Barrow and will continue today before
diminishing this evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ205-AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ218.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC SEP 16