Gale Warning 95, NWS Fairbanks, AK

429 
FZAK52 PAFG 141132
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
332 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-150245-
332 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA
WILL BREAK DOWN AND RETREAT AS A 978 MB LOW NEARING THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS MOVES EAST TO DUTCH HARBOR BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 984
MB. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-150245-
NORTON SOUND-
332 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-150245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
332 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-150245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
332 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-150245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
332 AM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SEP 16

178 
FZAK52 PAFG 142207
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
207 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-151400-
207 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA
IS RECEDING BACK INTO SIBERIA WITH WEAK RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
THE BERING STRAIT. A 981 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
CONTINUE E TO DUTCH HARBOR BY THU MORNING AT 985 MB...AND INTO
BRISTOL BAY THU NIGHT AT 987 MB. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-151400-
NORTON SOUND-
207 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-151400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
207 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-151400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
207 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-151400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
207 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SDB SEP 16

997 
FZAK52 PAFG 151129
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
329 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-160230-
329 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A 984 MB 
LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BE 150 NM EAST
OF COLD BAY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA WILL BE APPROACHING THE BERING STRAIT
SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ200-160230-
NORTON SOUND-
329 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-160230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
329 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-160230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
329 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-160230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
329 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SEP 16

487 
FZAK52 PAFG 160005
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-161515-
405 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA SOUTH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA WILL WEAKEN AS A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST
CHUKCHI SEA MOVES SOUTHEAST TO LIE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM
BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE AND WESTWARD FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ200-161515-
NORTON SOUND-
405 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-161515-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
405 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SAT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-161515-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
405 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-161515-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
405 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

DJH SEP 16

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
112 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Run to run continuity remains good. Some adjustment on
the movement of the upper level low as it fills and moves east a
little faster across the state. Still some divergence in the
extended periods, especially over the arctic, but blending the
models will leave a trough over the area. Timing of the
shortwaves moving around trough will be questionable, but the
general weather pattern will not be affected over most of the
area. Leaning toward the NAM precipitation solution again today
since it has had a better handle on the system over the last few
periods.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Primary low that was over Norton Sound
yesterday has moved east over Beaver at 538 dam and will continue
east over the Canadian yukon and dissipate tonight. An east to
west trough over the arctic will move south over the northwest
coast tonight and push south to lie from Deadhorse to Wales by
late Wednesday. Ridging will build over the southeast
mainland...mainly south and east of the Yukon River, then breaks
down and retreats southeast as a longwave trough associated with a
537 dam low over the arctic develops over the west coast. The
longwave trough will move slowly east across the state through the
weekend. At 850 hpa...Zero isotherm lies from Old Crow Yukon to
Fairbanks to Sleetmute to St Lawrence Island today. To the east
it will start slowly moving back to the north and will lie from
Old Crow to Ruby to Mekoryok by Thursday morning, and Old Crow to
Huslia to Marshall and south by Saturday morning.

Surface...Trough and stationary front will persist east to west
across the interior to the west coast, but weaken as ridging
pushes north over the Tanana Valley. Weak lows are still
developing along the front and will spread occasional showers to
most of the interior. Cloudy conditions will persist through the
week, but a few breaks will occur. The next system, a 978 mb low
near Shemya will move to Adak by Wednesday morning and Dutch
harbor by Thursday morning with the associated weather front
spreading more showers to the forecast area from the brooks range
south. Showery conditions will persist through the weekend. As the
system advances toward the area the pressure gradient will
increase and gap winds through the Alaska range will gust into the
40 mph range. A low pressure system in the high arctic has the
potential to bring the first significant snow to the arctic coast
starting Friday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Same issue today with the SPORT
NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics product at 13/1715Z as the high
clouds obscure lower clouds. The GOES probability product at
13/1830Z is indicating MVFR conditions over most of the arctic
with some higher clouds just offshore and more MVFR conditions well
offshore with the a trough progressing toward the coast.
Observation confirm it is mainly low cloud coverage. Heavy Snow
Warning remains in effect through Wednesday morning, it looks like
Toolik Lake and Anaktuvuk Pass have had about 2 inches of snow so
far. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with the freezing
level at or near the surface over most of the area. The next
significant system which will approach the coast on Friday could
bring the first significant snow to the arctic coastal areas
Friday night and Saturday. temperatures will continue to slowly
fall. As the low settles in near Huslia expect heavier
precipitation with the upslope component and a good southerly feed
of moisture into the area. East winds over most of the area as the
low settles in and weak ridging continues to build east over the
offshore waters.

West Coast and Western Interior...Showers tapering off in the
interior with some clearing and breaks developing overnight. GOES
IR loop indicates quite a bit of stratus over the west coast so
the weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea is pretty dirty. The
GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 13/1830Z indicating high
probability of MVFR conditions over most of the area without any
significant open areas. Winds will swing around from northerly to
easterly as the next system moves to Bristol Bay by tomorrow and
spreads rain to the lower Yukon Delta by Late Wednesday evening.
Rain will continue to spread north and east as the front
progresses north. The Kotzebue sound region will be spared for the
most part from the precipitation as a weak ridge develops over the
area between systems. Relatively strong winds will persist over
the Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait as ridging persists
over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Cooler temperatures will prevail and
some of the rain may mix with snow during the overnight hours
starting Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Showers will taper off through the
night as the system weakens a bit and the primary low along the
front moves to the east and dissipates over the Yukon Territory.
Very good potential for dense fog and low stratus ceilings
tonight and Wednesday morning are likely north and west of Delta
Junction. Winds generally light from the southwest will swing
around to east and northeast for Wednesday. Some stronger south
winds through the Alaska Range on Wednesday night as the next
system moves north into the interior and gap winds kick up and
gust to around 45 mph. Highs across the interior will be in the
lower 40s with lows in the 30s to the south of the Yukon River and
20s to the north.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.Hydrology...Some rises of around a foot in the rivers draining
out of the Brooks range, but they remain well below flood levels.
Expect them to continue to rise as the rains of the last couple
days make their way into the mainstem rivers. Rivers draining out
of the Alaska range have also seen some rises but do not foresee
any issues there. Not expecting any significant jumps in the
river levels the remainder of the week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning FOR AKZ205-AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory FOR AKZ217-AKZ218.

Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning FOR PKZ210.

&&

sdb Sep 16