Gale Warning 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

168 
FZAK51 PAFG 132311
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-141415-
211 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A 994 NEAR TELLER WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST
OF KIVALINA AS A 1015 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ225-141415-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
211 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-141415-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
211 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-141415-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
211 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-141415-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
211 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-141415-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
211 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

CF/EWP JAN 16

027 
FZAK51 PAFG 141207
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-150300-
307 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WELL N OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. A 1004 MB LOW 100 NM W OF KIVALINA WILL
DISSIPATE OVER KIVALINA BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ225-150300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
307 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-150300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
307 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG AND BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-150300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
307 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-150300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
307 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-150300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
307 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

SDB/DA JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND ALASKA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND.

WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTH WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH FRI ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES NORTH SLOPE AND WEST COAST WILL DROP TO NORMAL OR
BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE EASTERN INTERIOR REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8C OVER THE SE INTERIOR TO -16C
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURE COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL SEE WARMING OF
4-6C OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT AND THU.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC
COAST TO PERSIST.

A 987 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTH OF NOME WILL MOVE TO SHISHMAREF AS A 995
LOW BY 3PM WED...TO 80 NM WEST OF POINT HOPE AS A 1004 MB LOW BY
3AM THU...TO 120 NM WEST OF CAPE LISBURNE AS A 1014 MB LOW BY 3PM
THU...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH THE LOW. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW. NORTHEAST WINDS 25-35 KT NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW WILL
START TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS. WILL ADD
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY TO ZONE 207 FROM KIVALINA NORTH
AND ZONE 201 FROM POINT LAY WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR FALLING SNOW ADDED
TO THE CURRENT BLOWING SNOW.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO POINT HOPE TO EAGLE
WILL MOVE TO POINT LAY TO FORT YUKON BY 3PM WED...TO WAINWRIGHT TO
OLD CROW BY 3AM THU AND THEN NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST THU PM.
THERE ARE FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO DEERING TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO
POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH BY 3PM WED...TO WAINWRIGHT TO MINCHUMINA BY
3AM THU...TO BARROW TO DENALI BY 3PM THU...TO BARROW TO NORTHWAY
BY 3AM FRI...AND TO BARROW TO OLD CROW BY 3PM FRI. SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS FRONT COULD DROP 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THU.

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3AM
THU. AFTER THAT THE NAM AND ECMF MAINTAIN THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA LONGER THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH FRI IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER
LONGER SO WE PREFER THE NAM/ECMF FROM THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215.

&&

JB JAN 16