Brisk Wind Advisory 27, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1250 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS. MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA WITH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE BERING STRAIT. BERING STRAIT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE TONIGHT AND BE ABSORBED THE MAIN LOW
IN FAR EAST RUSSIA. COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE POLE WILL CONNECT
WITH COLD LOW IN THE ARCTIC NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD TO NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL LOW IN FAR EAST RUSSIA WITH SHORT WAVE TROF THROUGH
Y-K DELTA WILL MOVE THE SHORT WAVE NORTH TO NEAR THE NORTHWEST
ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE BERING
STRAIT LOW REDEVELOPS INLAND OF POINT HOPE ON THU AFTERNOON AND
MOVES TO ABOUT POINT LAY BY FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE AFTER THU BUT
FEEL THAT WITH THE MODERATE LOW ALOFT THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
SOME SURFACE REFLECTION OF THAT UPPER LOW.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO HANG AROUND ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE WITH THE
SURFACE LOW AND THE TROF THROUGH PROBABLY AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE
TROF ALOFT FALLS APART ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE AROUND SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM ABOUT THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS IS CREATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI MORNING.

AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT ON
SAT. THIS WILL CREATE DECENT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY COASTAL
ISSUES WITH THESE WINDS GIVEN THE ICE COVERAGE AND THE WINDS BEING
PARALLEL TO SHORE OR OFF SHORE. ONSHORE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BUT THE ICE SHOULD PREVENT ANY COASTAL
ISSUES FROM DEVELOPING THERE EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ONSHORE ICE SHOVE.

FOR THE MOST PART...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE STATE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...A FEW AREAS OF SNOW PRODUCING A
COUPLE OF INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
THE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF JAN 16