Brisk Wind Advisory 65, NWS Fairbanks, AK

018 
FZAK52 PAFG 042331
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-051230-
231 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL PERSIST. A
LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY AND WEAKEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG NOW NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY 3PM FRI AND TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY SAT.

$$

PKZ200-051230-
NORTON SOUND-
231 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-051230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
231 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-051230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
231 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-051230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
231 PM AKST THU FEB 4 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

EWP/NTS FEB 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
339 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE. THE LATEST WEATHER FRONT
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVED ASHORE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST
AROUND NOON AND WILL MOVE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS THING HAS MOVED INTO THE CANADIAN
YUKON AND OUR ZONE 224. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN WRAPPING THAT MOISTURE CYCLONICALLY NORTHWEST - WEST - AND
SOUTHWEST OVER ZONES 220 AND 221 TONIGHT / THURSDAY...BUT DO
NOT MANAGE TO GET MUCH OF TI INTO ZONES 222 OR 225. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION FROM IT ANYWAY...MAINLY FLURRIES.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT LIES OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...
THOUGH THERE IS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS
CENTER IS MOVING WEST. IT WILL BE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 3 AM
THURSDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR AT 3 PM THURSDAY.
AS USUAL...THE MODELS TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD THE FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RIGHT THROUGH THIS
THING. THAT SORT OF THING HAS FAILED TO HAPPEN SEVERAL TIMES
RECENTLY...OR HAS AT LEAST BEEN CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND WEAKER
THAN THE MODELS WOULD HAVE HAD. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF
FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST NOTICEABLY CONCERNING THE WINDS
IN MARINE AREAS 220 NORTH AND EAST. THAT SAID...THEY'LL STILL
BE COMING UP TO BRISK OR BETTER...AT LEAST WELL OFFSHORE.

THERE'S NOTHING TO KEEP THAT GRADIENT FROM SPREADING NORTHWARD
SOUTH OF THE LOW ALOFT THOUGH. IT HAS BEEN DOING SO. WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ARE NOTICEABLY STRONGER THAN TUESDAY...AND
GENERALLY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

DJH FEB 16