Brisk Wind Advisory 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
540 AM AKST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN THIS WINTER OF A DOMINANT
RIDGE TRAVELING UP THE WEST COAST OF THE CONTINENT AND INTO
EASTERN ALASKA REMAINS IN PLACE. MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW ARE CREATING SOME AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG...BUT MAINLY QUIET
WEATHER IS PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO CHANGES IN
SIGHT. WITH THE STAGNANT PATTERN WE HAVE HAD MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY DEVELOP A SPREAD IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS INTO THE MID AND EXTENDED TERMS...BUT THIS IS ALWAYS TO
BE EXPECTED.

ALOFT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND
EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE NORTH SLOPE AND INTO THE BERING STRAIT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR FROM THE
YUKON. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS
WAY NORTHWARD IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY
THURSDAY...KUSKOKWIM DELTA FRIDAY...AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
BY THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...THE FEATURES DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION ARE
REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE AS WELL. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
FEATURES WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INDUCE EASTERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS BEING OBSERVED STARTING TODAY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE
STATE.

NORTH SLOPE...FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ABOUT THE
NORTH SLOPE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO
AVIATION WITH DEADHORSE AND NUIQSUT FLIRTING WITH VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC HIGH AND NORTHWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ALASKA GULF INCREASES.

WESTERN ALASKA...MOSTLY CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT...EXCEPT
FOR WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST AS IT IS A
RATHER WEAK SYSTEM.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE
WILL KEEP WEATHER LARGELY QUIET OVER THE HEART OF ALASKA TODAY.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF STRATUS THAT CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FLURRY HERE OR THERE. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
ON THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
UNSETTLE THINGS IN THE BIG PICTURE...JUST EXPECTING SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO IS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
INTERIOR INDUCING WINDY CONDITIONS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER
SUMMITS...CREATING TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THOSE DRIVING INTERIOR
HIGHWAYS THAT TRAVERSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AVIATION...FAIRBANKS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE INCOMING
FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL BRING IN SOME LOW TO MID
DECKS AND AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER...HOWEVER ANTICIPATING
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

BJB FEB 16