Brisk Wind Advisory 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
339 PM AKST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE. THE LATEST WEATHER FRONT
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVED ASHORE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST
AROUND NOON AND WILL MOVE ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS THING HAS MOVED INTO THE CANADIAN
YUKON AND OUR ZONE 224. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN WRAPPING THAT MOISTURE CYCLONICALLY NORTHWEST - WEST - AND
SOUTHWEST OVER ZONES 220 AND 221 TONIGHT / THURSDAY...BUT DO
NOT MANAGE TO GET MUCH OF TI INTO ZONES 222 OR 225. NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION FROM IT ANYWAY...MAINLY FLURRIES.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT LIES OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...
THOUGH THERE IS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS
CENTER IS MOVING WEST. IT WILL BE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 3 AM
THURSDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR AT 3 PM THURSDAY.
AS USUAL...THE MODELS TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD THE FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RIGHT THROUGH THIS
THING. THAT SORT OF THING HAS FAILED TO HAPPEN SEVERAL TIMES
RECENTLY...OR HAS AT LEAST BEEN CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND WEAKER
THAN THE MODELS WOULD HAVE HAD. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY BACKED OFF
FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST NOTICEABLY CONCERNING THE WINDS
IN MARINE AREAS 220 NORTH AND EAST. THAT SAID...THEY'LL STILL
BE COMING UP TO BRISK OR BETTER...AT LEAST WELL OFFSHORE.

THERE'S NOTHING TO KEEP THAT GRADIENT FROM SPREADING NORTHWARD
SOUTH OF THE LOW ALOFT THOUGH. IT HAS BEEN DOING SO. WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ARE NOTICEABLY STRONGER THAN TUESDAY...AND
GENERALLY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

DJH FEB 16