Brisk Wind Advisory 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1253 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...INITIALIZING WELL AGAINST THE 12 ANALYSIS AND VERIFYING
WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODELS EXHIBIT REASONABLE SPREAD ON
FEATURE LOCATION TRACK AND STRENGTH THROUGH BOTH THE MID TERM AS
WELL AS THE LONG TERM.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SKINNY RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE RIDGE
CLOSING OFF TO FORM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRANGLE
ISLAND. A SHORT WAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS A 970 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY
AS A 972 MB LOW SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING. A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL PUSH ONTO THE THE NORTH SLOPE SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BRISTOL BAY LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH WILL
BUILD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE WEST COAST BEGINNING THIS
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SATURDAY OVER THE WEST
COAST. WIND ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR THE SUMMITS OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
GUSTY EAST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
OVER THE WEST COAST AND SEWARD PENINSULA. OLD ICE CRUSTED SNOW
PACK AND LACK OF FALLING SNOW WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW AND
RESULTING LOWER VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SUMMITS WITH
EXPECTED WINDS.

NEXT LOW MOVES NORTHWEST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TO NEAR SAND
POINT MONDAY AND WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER YK DELTA AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND PASSES. PATTERN OF LOWS
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BLOCKING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL ALASKA ALONG WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR SNOW. WESTERN
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF
LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR
ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MAINTAIN INTERIOR VALLEY INVERSIONS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.
&&

CCC JAN 16