Brisk Wind Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

455 
FZAK52 PAFG 082351
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-091500-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 984 MB OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST. A 971 MB LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY BY SAT AFTERNOON AT 974 MB...THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AT 978 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

$$

PKZ200-091500-
NORTON SOUND-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-091500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-091500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-091500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
251 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT NORTH OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN.
BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH JAN 16

527 
FZAK52 PAFG 091321
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
421 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-100030-
421 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. A STRONG LOW IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AS A
971 MB LOW BY 3AM SUN AND TO THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA AS A 971 MB
LOW BY 3PM SUN.

$$

PKZ200-100030-
NORTON SOUND-
421 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-100030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
421 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 12FT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT.  SEAS 12FT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-100030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
421 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-100030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
421 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1030 AM AKST THU JAN 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE WITH THE
12Z GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL INITIALIZING WELL AGAINST THE 12Z
ANALYSIS AND VERIFYING WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DISPLAY REASONABLE SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE...HOWEVER THERE EXISTS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON SHORT WAVE
FEATURE STRENGTH AND POSITION THROUGH THE MID RANGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND A
COL FORMING OVER CENTRAL ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD TO THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM AND ONLY MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AND A WEAK
CHINOOK EXPECTED SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS TO THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AS THE WAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTH. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE
SNOW OVER THE LOWER YK DELTA. RECENT WARM CONDITIONS OVER THESE
AREAS SHOULD LIMIT ICING POTENTIAL ON TRAVEL SURFACES.

A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12
BELOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND
NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
YUKON MONDAY. THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA THE
YUKON...BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHWARD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE BUT REORIENTATE FROM A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION TO
A MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OVER MUCH
OF NORTHERN ALASKA AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN STORMINESS OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AS SYSTEMS RIDE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE BERING SEA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE
EAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CCC JAN 16