Small Craft Advisory 928, NWS Anchorage, AK

592 
FZAK51 PAFC 250036
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251345-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 MB LOW FORMS 60 NM NORTH OF KODIAK CITY FRI MORNING AND
MOVES TO 155 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA DISSIPATING SAT AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA BY SAT MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-251345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251345-
PORT VALDEZ-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251345-
VALDEZ ARM-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251345-
CHINIAK BAY-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251345-
MARMOT BAY-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
336 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 AM AKST Thu Nov 24 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The transition to a more zonal and active weather pattern is
underway across the region. The best evidence for this is a strong
southwesterly jet streak approaching the Central Aleutians, which
is helping to push a weather front across the Bering Sea/Aleutians
well ahead of the parent low which is situated all the way back
to the eastern Kamchatka coast. This front/jet combo is helping to
push an arctic air mass behind the front across the western
Bering heading east.

Meanwhile, an upper level ridge dominates most of the rest of the
forecast area, resulting in benign conditions from the central
Bering Sea to Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. A large broad
cyclonic circulation over the Northeast Pacific continues to move
well away from the western Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally good agreement with the synoptic pattern,
but with minor speed, placement, and timing differences in the
active zonal weather pattern that will have a large impact on the
intensity and duration of sensible weather over the next few days.
This makes for varying levels of confidence depending on the
location through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Clear skies with little wind will persist today. An
approaching weather system from the Bering will bring some mid
level clouds tonight. Ceilings will then lower to 5000 ft Fri
morning with some snow showers in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cold and clear conditions will be the rule for southcentral Alaska
today with clouds coming in overnight. A front in the eastern
Bering Sea is moving rapidly eastward and will bring some rain
and snow to Kodiak by this evening and some light snow into the
Cook Inlet region toward tomorrow morning. Snow amounts are not
expected to be very high with only an inch or two at most places
around sea level.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front moving across the Bering towards southwest Alaska will
first move in over the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. Then it
will continue to push further inland through the night. This
system will be cold enough for snow around southwest Alaska
except for the Alaska Peninsula that will see enough warm air
pulled up from the south for rain to mix in.

Winds will also accompany the front as it passes and they will be
strong enough along the Kuskokwim Delta coast this afternoon and
evening for blowing snow conditions to develop. However, this
evening as the front pushes off to the east the snow and winds
will both diminish. After the front moves through the area snow
showers will linger into Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front moving across the Bering will bring rain and snow to the
area as it passes. Behind this system colder air and westerly
winds will be ushered in transitioning most of the precipitation
to snow. On Friday a new system will approach the Central
Aleutians from the North Pacific bringing more wind and rain to
the islands. This system will then track to the northeast into the
Bering spreading the rain to the Eastern Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The models continue to struggle with the storm track for the storm
force low that crosses the Central Aleutians Friday evening as it
tracks eastward. The GFS/NAM push this system farther north
through the Bristol Bay interior near Cape Newenham by Saturday
evening. While the ECMWF models has a farther south track along
the Alaska Peninsula near Pilot Point before crossing over into
the Gulf by Sunday. Therefore, we opted to use the Canadian-NH
model, which had a storm track farther north along the Alaska
Peninsula near Egigik. This storm track aligned more with the
positioning of the southwesterly jet streak streaming along the
Eastern Aleutians before transitioning to a northwesterly flow in
the eastern Gulf heading into the weekend. This system will bring
storm force westerly winds along the Central/Eastern Aleutians
accompanied by a showery regime through Saturday before gradually
diminishing by Sunday as the system exits into the Gulf.
Meanwhile, the Bering winds shift out of the north bringing colder
temperatures to the region through Monday before the next storm
force low enters the Western Aleutians by Tuesday. For the
Southcentral Alaska region, a gale force low is parked in the
northern Gulf, but exits to the lower Southeastern Panhandle by
Saturday. By Saturday a weather front associated with the storm
force low located in the Bristol Bay region moves through the
Southcentral region. The precipitation will fall as all snow with
the colder air in place at the surface. By Sunday evening the
aforementioned storm tracks into the northern Gulf, and remains
almost stationary through Tuesday before dissipating. Look for the
bulk of the precipitation to remain along the northern Gulf
coastal communities. The forecast confidence remains average
through the weekend, with continued model discrepancies with the
storm tracks.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 178
         Gales 127 132 150 155 160 165 170 172-177 179 180 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...cc
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ez
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...dk
LONG TERM...pd