Gale Warning 678, NWS Anchorage, AK

978 
FZAK61 PAFC 250026
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251430-
326 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 MB LOW FORMS AT 59N 152W FRI MORNING AND MOVES TO 56N 139W
DISSIPATING SAT AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA BY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-251430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
326 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-251430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
326 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 25 TO 38 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

448 
FZAK61 PAFC 251204
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260215-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 58N 149W LATE THIS
MORNING AT 988 MB AND THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF LATE SAT MORNING AND MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. A
963 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY SAT AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 971 MB NEAR
58N 150W LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-260215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 30 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-260215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
304 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 35 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

456 
FZAK61 PAFC 260042
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261415-
342 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 991 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 56N
138W AT 1000 MB AND DISSIPATES SUN MORNING. A 969 MB LOW ENTERS
NEAR 57N 156W SAT EVENING AND MOVES TO 57N 141W AT 982 MB BY SUN
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-261415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
342 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-261415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
342 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 19
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT BUILDING TO 19
TO 34 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 TO 34 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

726 
FZAK61 PAFC 261230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270230-
330 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED 969 MB LOW ENTERS
THE GULF NEAR 57N 155W THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 57N 148W AT
972 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN
AFTERNOON AT 983 MB. A 991 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND SUN EVENING AND MOVES INLAND NEAR 60N 145W LATE SUN NIGHT.


$$

PKZ351-270230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
330 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-270230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
330 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 8 TO 14 FT BUILDING 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 23 TO 31 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKST Wed Nov 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad complex low in the southern Gulf is bringing showers to
areas around the Gulf including Kodiak Island. To the west of this
low, remnants of a front stretch across the eastern Bering
bringing rain and snow to the Alaska Peninsula. Moving in behind
the diminishing front is ridging that is tracking east and moving
over the Central Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement until Friday when there are
differences with the track of a low that is pushing across
southwest Alaska into the Gulf. The NAM brings the low into the
northern Gulf while the GEM is in the southern Gulf with the GFS
and EC in between. The further north solutions will offer the best
chance of snow for Southcentral Alaska but uncertainty with the
track of this low is high. The GFS solution was preferred.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low in the Gulf of Alaska is weakening and will move
southward, leaving southcentral Alaska under mostly clear skies
through Thanksgiving Day. Kodiak Island will still see some gusty
winds and rain showers with this low today, but will also clear
out for Thanksgiving Day as the low moves away from the area and
the island comes under northwest flow. The next system moves in
from the southwest reaching Kodiak Thursday night and then into
the Cook Inlet region Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Offshore flow is expected to diminish today as an area of low
pressure near Kodiak Island drifts further east into the Gulf of
Alaska. As this happens, high pressure will build across the
region from the north, which should help continue this period of
below normal temperatures. On Thursday, a very potent frontal
system will move across the eastern Bering Sea and inland over
Southwest Alaska. While some warmer air aloft is expected to nudge
into Southwest Alaska ahead of the front, 850 mb temperatures are
still expected to be in the -5C to -6C range, which is a huge
indicator that most, if not all, precipitation will fall as snow.
Model soundings indicate the snow growth zone will be nearly
saturated and have nice upward vertical motion due to the synoptic
forcing of the front. This should help squeeze out a storm total 3
to 6 inches across Southwest Alaska Thursday evening through much
of Friday, with the highest accumulations expected along the
Bering Sea coast. Chances for blowing snow seem pretty small at
this time as winds are expected to only peak at around 15 to 20
mph, because the frontal boundary falls apart rapidly as it moves
inland. This concern will continue to be monitored in the coming
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

As one area of low pressure exits the Bering Sea to the east this
morning, another one moves in from the west. A deepening area of
low pressure off the east coast of Kamchatka has begun to swing
another potent frontal boundary toward the Bering Sea. Gale force
winds will develop over the far western Bering Sea this morning as
the front approaches. However, winds will increase to storm force
(50-55 kt) near Shemya as the surface low moves into the Bering
Sea. A nice jet streak associated with the upper low stacked on
top of the surface low will help create another dynamic fetch
scenario, where seas are expected to increase to 35 to 40 ft on
Thursday. Much of the Bering Sea will see winds range from 30 to
45 knots Thursday and Friday as this low moves across the region.
In addition, periods of light to moderate rainfall and snowfall
will be expected across the Bering Sea with the potential for
minor accumulations over the western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The biggest change in the extended forecast deals with the storm
force low that develops in the base of the longwave trough south
of the Western Aleutians by Friday. The previous storm track had
this system tracking along the Chain before entering the Gulf. The
current solution brings the low to the central ALeutians, and
then across the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of AK on Sun. Look
for the associated weather front to approach the Southwest Alaska
coastline by Saturday morning. The temperatures for the Southwest
Alaska area remain below freezing. Therefore, the precipitation
will fall as all snow as this feature moves through the region
this weekend. This synoptic feature brings gale force
southeasterly to southerly winds accompanied by rain/stratus along
the Chain before spilling over into the eastern Bering heading
into the weekend. Storm force westerly to northwesterly winds
occur on the backside of this system as it skirts along the
Central/Eastern Chain before exiting the region. The ECMWF model
is faster than the GFS with this system, but both models bring
this storm into the northern Gulf by Sunday evening before moving
inland by Monday afternoon. Therefore, the Southcentral region
will be affected by the associated weather front by late Friday
evening going into Saturday morning. Due to the colder
temperatures already in place, any precipitation will fall as all
snow for the Southcentral region. Due to the model discrepancies
with the storm track, the forecast confidence remains average at
best through this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 178
         Gales 131 155 165 170 172 173 175-177 179 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...dk
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ez
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...mc
LONG TERM...pd/ds