Small Craft Advisory 903, NWS Anchorage, AK

982 
FZAK51 PAFC 180032
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181400-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1017 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA DRIFTS TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST
OF CORDOVA AT 1013 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CORDOVA AT 1007 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181400-
PORT VALDEZ-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181400-
VALDEZ ARM-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181400-
CHINIAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181400-
MARMOT BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKST Wed Nov 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level pattern has become more amplified over the
forecast area with a ridge building over the eastern Bering Sea
and western Alaska where it will remain through Thursday.
A weak upper level low ahead of the ridge will move southeastward
overnight and into the northwestern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night.
The front in the western Bering Sea will weaken ans it progresses
eastward into the ridge in the eastern Bering sea.

At the surface there remains high pressure over the mainland part
of the state with a strong low over Kamchatka and weak trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. The combination of the high pressure over the
mainland with trough in the Gulf is causing a tight pressure
gradient to develop along the north Gulf coast which will persist
for a few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in very good agreement for a number of days over the
mainland part of the state and Gulf of Alaska. The one
uncertainty from yesterday was the track an upper level low will
take down the Susitna Valley and over the Kenai Peninsula have
been largely resolved with the NAM shifting to a farther west
track that was shown buy the GFS and ECMWF.
Farther west in the Bering Sea is where things break down by
Friday night with a series of lows moving into the Aleutians and
Bering Sea. The handling of these lows cast some increased uncertainty
into the weekend forecast for the Aleutians and Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure setting up over the Southwest Mainland continues to
generate some gusty northwesterly and northerly flow across
western portions of Southcentral tonight. Gusty outflow gap winds
will remain in the forecast for some of the typical gaps around
the Northern Gulf and Prince William Sound area through Friday, as
the gradient tightens over the coast between the higher pressure
over the Mainland and low pressure over the Gulf. A well defined
upper level low will push southward through the Cook Inlet region
and Kenai Peninsula through Thursday evening, then stall over the
Northwest Gulf Friday morning before retrograding back northward
as the upper level flow pattern changes. Even though this is a
well defined system, it remains relatively dry, which would limit
any snowfall to flurries or very light snowfall along the
Talkeetna/Chugach/Kenai Mountains.

Relatively dry conditions will remain in place across
Southcentral into Thursday as high pressure builds into the
Mainland and offshore flow remains the dominant flow pattern over
the area through Friday. The only exception is along the Prince
William Sound region and Northern Gulf coast, where models are
showing a surface low forming over the gulf and bringing multiple
waves of precipitation to the area both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the southwest brings drier conditions and offshore
flow through the end of the week. Patchy fog at night will mainly
develop across the Kuskokwim where the atmosphere is more stable
allowing for a steeper temperature inversion just off the surface.
The next front pushes into the Alaska Peninsula Thursday night and
then moves across the Kuskokwim Delta and western areas of Bristol
Bay on Friday. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow along
the Peninsula and all snow across Southwest coast as the air mass
remains below freezing. Winds generally stay out of the south
along the coast with this front...except for the Alaska Peninsula
where winds shift to the west with the frontal passage (fropa).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The storm force front across the western Aleutians weakens
tonight down to gale strength as it elongates and moves east.
After midnight the front aligns from Kamchatka to the Central
Aleutians and slowly moves into the central Bering, from the
Pribilof Islands to the Eastern Aleutians, by Thursday afternoon.
A colder air mass advects into the Bering along westerly flow
behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

By Fri afternoon a pattern change will be in full swing over our
corner of the Northern Hemisphere. The upper level ridge that has
been inhibiting the eastward progression of weather systems will
be slowly moving northeast. On Sat the change from a blocking
pattern to a progressive pattern begins. The location of the upper
high will force these eastward moving systems to remain south of
much of the forecast area. Whether the upper flow becomes
essentially zonal, or if there are several troughs that move east
is still uncertain. This means the timing of each individual low
that moves along the Aleutians remains in question. While the
forecast utilizes some NAM and GFS through Sat, the rest of the
forecast defers to the ensemble solution from WPC.

The relaxation of the blocking upper high means the Bering front
will be able to move across the coast before decaying over
southwest AK Fri night into Sat. A residual area of low pressure
will also gradually weaken along the north Gulf coast during this
period. On Sat an elongated double low moves along the Aleutians
through Sun, before consolidating and moving to Vancouver Island
by Wed. This will be followed by ridging that transits the
Aleutians to the Akpen Sun night into Tue. Another low will move
off Kamchatka Mon with an associated triple point reaching the
Gulf Wed. Finally a third low develops in the extreme western
Bering later on Wed.

In the west this will all result in some snow along the coast
initially Fri night into Sat, and then rain and snow showers
mainly over the Bering and Aleutians through the middle of next
week. In the east, some coastal rain and Chugach Mountain snow
will be associated with the north Gulf low through Sat. Brief
drying will be followed by some coastal rain and coastal mountain
snow as the lows move through the Gulf through midweek. Inland areas
of Southcentral will remain cold and dry.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181 185 411 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS