Small Craft Advisory 902, NWS Anchorage, AK

774 
FZAK52 PAFC 180032
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-181345-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY FRIDAY. A 1007 MB NORTH PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SAT MORNING AT 993 MB. A 993 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND
THIS LOW 120 NM NORTHWEST OF ATKA AT 989 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW LATE FRI MOVES TO 110 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY AT
988 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-181345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-181345-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT
W OF SAND POINT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT
BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-181345-
BRISTOL BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-181345-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-181345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ171-181345-
UNALASKA BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-181345-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-181345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-181345-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-181345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ176-181345-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ177-181345-
ADAK TO KISKA-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ178-181345-
KISKA TO ATTU-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT.

$$

PKZ179-181345-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-181345-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-181345-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-181345-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKST Wed Nov 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level pattern has become more amplified over the
forecast area with a ridge building over the eastern Bering Sea
and western Alaska where it will remain through Thursday.
A weak upper level low ahead of the ridge will move southeastward
overnight and into the northwestern Gulf of Alaska Thursday night.
The front in the western Bering Sea will weaken ans it progresses
eastward into the ridge in the eastern Bering sea.

At the surface there remains high pressure over the mainland part
of the state with a strong low over Kamchatka and weak trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. The combination of the high pressure over the
mainland with trough in the Gulf is causing a tight pressure
gradient to develop along the north Gulf coast which will persist
for a few days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in very good agreement for a number of days over the
mainland part of the state and Gulf of Alaska. The one
uncertainty from yesterday was the track an upper level low will
take down the Susitna Valley and over the Kenai Peninsula have
been largely resolved with the NAM shifting to a farther west
track that was shown buy the GFS and ECMWF.
Farther west in the Bering Sea is where things break down by
Friday night with a series of lows moving into the Aleutians and
Bering Sea. The handling of these lows cast some increased uncertainty
into the weekend forecast for the Aleutians and Bering Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure setting up over the Southwest Mainland continues to
generate some gusty northwesterly and northerly flow across
western portions of Southcentral tonight. Gusty outflow gap winds
will remain in the forecast for some of the typical gaps around
the Northern Gulf and Prince William Sound area through Friday, as
the gradient tightens over the coast between the higher pressure
over the Mainland and low pressure over the Gulf. A well defined
upper level low will push southward through the Cook Inlet region
and Kenai Peninsula through Thursday evening, then stall over the
Northwest Gulf Friday morning before retrograding back northward
as the upper level flow pattern changes. Even though this is a
well defined system, it remains relatively dry, which would limit
any snowfall to flurries or very light snowfall along the
Talkeetna/Chugach/Kenai Mountains.

Relatively dry conditions will remain in place across
Southcentral into Thursday as high pressure builds into the
Mainland and offshore flow remains the dominant flow pattern over
the area through Friday. The only exception is along the Prince
William Sound region and Northern Gulf coast, where models are
showing a surface low forming over the gulf and bringing multiple
waves of precipitation to the area both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging over the southwest brings drier conditions and offshore
flow through the end of the week. Patchy fog at night will mainly
develop across the Kuskokwim where the atmosphere is more stable
allowing for a steeper temperature inversion just off the surface.
The next front pushes into the Alaska Peninsula Thursday night and
then moves across the Kuskokwim Delta and western areas of Bristol
Bay on Friday. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and snow along
the Peninsula and all snow across Southwest coast as the air mass
remains below freezing. Winds generally stay out of the south
along the coast with this front...except for the Alaska Peninsula
where winds shift to the west with the frontal passage (fropa).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The storm force front across the western Aleutians weakens
tonight down to gale strength as it elongates and moves east.
After midnight the front aligns from Kamchatka to the Central
Aleutians and slowly moves into the central Bering, from the
Pribilof Islands to the Eastern Aleutians, by Thursday afternoon.
A colder air mass advects into the Bering along westerly flow
behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

By Fri afternoon a pattern change will be in full swing over our
corner of the Northern Hemisphere. The upper level ridge that has
been inhibiting the eastward progression of weather systems will
be slowly moving northeast. On Sat the change from a blocking
pattern to a progressive pattern begins. The location of the upper
high will force these eastward moving systems to remain south of
much of the forecast area. Whether the upper flow becomes
essentially zonal, or if there are several troughs that move east
is still uncertain. This means the timing of each individual low
that moves along the Aleutians remains in question. While the
forecast utilizes some NAM and GFS through Sat, the rest of the
forecast defers to the ensemble solution from WPC.

The relaxation of the blocking upper high means the Bering front
will be able to move across the coast before decaying over
southwest AK Fri night into Sat. A residual area of low pressure
will also gradually weaken along the north Gulf coast during this
period. On Sat an elongated double low moves along the Aleutians
through Sun, before consolidating and moving to Vancouver Island
by Wed. This will be followed by ridging that transits the
Aleutians to the Akpen Sun night into Tue. Another low will move
off Kamchatka Mon with an associated triple point reaching the
Gulf Wed. Finally a third low develops in the extreme western
Bering later on Wed.

In the west this will all result in some snow along the coast
initially Fri night into Sat, and then rain and snow showers
mainly over the Bering and Aleutians through the middle of next
week. In the east, some coastal rain and Chugach Mountain snow
will be associated with the north Gulf low through Sat. Brief
drying will be followed by some coastal rain and coastal mountain
snow as the lows move through the Gulf through midweek. Inland areas
of Southcentral will remain cold and dry.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 181 185 411 412 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS