Gale Warning 722, NWS Anchorage, AK

666 
FZAK51 PAFC 171249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180145-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. A 1017
MB LOW DEVELOPS 160 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA THIS MORNING AND DRIFTS
TO 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD AT 1011 MB LATE FRI NIGHT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-180145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180145-
PORT VALDEZ-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180145-
VALDEZ ARM-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180145-
CHINIAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180145-
MARMOT BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 FOOT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
349 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

982 
FZAK51 PAFC 180032
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181400-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1017 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA DRIFTS TO 140 NM SOUTHWEST
OF CORDOVA AT 1013 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CORDOVA AT 1007 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181400-
PORT VALDEZ-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181400-
VALDEZ ARM-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181400-
CHINIAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181400-
MARMOT BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
332 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 AM AKST Wed Nov 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a closed upper level low positioned over the Upper
Kuskokwim Valley with an associated trough extending southward
through the Alaska and the Aleutian ranges this morning. This
synoptic feature was producing scattered snow showers at
Sparrevohn during the overnight hours last night. While the Copper
River Basin has a ridge of high pressure extending northward into
the North Slope. This feature was aiding in development of fog
during the early morning hours today at Glennallen. Meanwhile, the
western Bering is influenced by an amplified ridge, but an
upstream weather front is approaching the area. The Scatterometer
wind imagery early this morning was showing gale force southerly
winds accompanied by a large swath of moisture streaming through
the Western ALeutians towards the Kamchatka Peninsula. Meanwhile,
the northern Bering has a minor shortwave over the Saint Matthew
Island region extending through the Pribilof Islands. The water
vapor imagery is depicting this feature with drier conditions
behind the shortwave, with a plume of moisture from the
Central/Eastern Aleutians northward into the northern Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in good agreement. The preferred models were the
GFS and the NAM. The models are showing a low developing in the
northern Gulf as it moves westward before being located just south
of Seward by Friday. This coincides with an upper level closed low
that drops down from the north through the Anchorage Bowl before
being positioned over the Kenai. This synoptic feature will remain
under close scrutiny with the potential for snowfall developing
in the Prince William Sound before possibly spilling over into the
Anchorage Bowl by late Friday evening. The forecast confidence
remains average as we head toward the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A few showers remain just south of Middleton Island, but are
continuing to weaken and drift south, as the associated Gulf low
continues to drift to the southeast this morning. Meanwhile high
pressure is building into the Southwest Alaska mainland, which is
supporting gusty northwesterly and northerly flow across western
portions of Southcentral. Winds have increased overnight as the
pressure gradient has increased, which has also helped to mix out
local fog along the Kenai Peninsula and Copper River basin. A vort
max stretched along between these two features is currently
pushing into Southcentral. Although it is a well-defined vort max,
the airmass remains relatively dry, and currently it is expected
only to touch off a few flurries as it drifts across the Talkeetna
and Chugach mountains today. Relatively dry conditions will remain
in place across Southcentral into Thursday as high pressure builds
into the mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will sit over the mainland for another day leading
to some of the coldest temperatures of the year, and another
couple days of dry conditions. Morning fog will linger in river
valleys this morning, and should mix out by this afternoon. A
weakening disturbance will spread some middle and high clouds over
the mainland from west to east today before moving out of the area
tonight. Winds will remain relatively light except for some
northerly winds over the eastern Bristol Bay area. Light winds and
clearing sky tonight along with the surface high pressure will
promote another night of fog development, mainly along the
Kuskokwim River. A weakening front approaches the western coast
late Thursday night, bringing a slight chance of rain/snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A storm-force front entering the Western Aleutians/Bering this
morning will progress from west to east as it weakens through late
Thursday night. Rain should be the predominant type along the
front, while cold air filtering into the back side of the system
will promote both rain and snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

It is clear that the Bering ridge,responsible for separating the
two domains into separate weather scenarios, is breaking down.
This will usher in a period of rapidly progressive systems at
least through the middle of next week.

There remains good model agreement Thu night through Fri as the
mainland AK ridge begins to retreat and the Bering front
dissipates over southwest AK and the Akpen. A weak low will also
remain over the extreme northern Gulf. By Fri night the latter low
dissipates, and a succession of lows and waves make their way
across the North Pacific to the Aleutians. This is where the
models have difficulty resolving and moving the lows. Some models
have a series of lows moving east while others consolidate the
features into one large central Aleutian low.

The forecast through Fri night utilized the Nam, but then the
ensemble approach of WPC was used to describe the next low as it
moves, from near Attu on Fri to the central Aleutians on Sat, and
then to the central Gulf on Mon. This low leaves the area on Tue,
while the next low leaves Kamchatka on Mon, reaches the central
Bering Tue, and then continues to the Gulf.

As the lows move east they will spread some rain and snow showers
across the Aleutians and southwest AK. Scattered rain and snow
showers are also expected mainly along the north Gulf coast
through Sat. There should be a break in precipitation beginning Sat
night until it returns with the second low early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 129 173 175-177 185 412-414.
         Storm 178 411
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PLD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...DS