Small Craft Advisory 673, NWS Anchorage, AK

368 
FZAK51 PAFC 241157
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250045-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-250045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-250045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-250045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-250045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-250045-
PORT VALDEZ-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-250045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-250045-
VALDEZ ARM-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-250045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-250045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-250045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-250045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-250045-
CHINIAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-250045-
MARMOT BAY-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-250045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-250045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-250045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-250045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

488 
FZAK51 PAFC 242356
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251300-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
LATE THU NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH FRI MORNING.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC FRI MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-251300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251300-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251300-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251300-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251300-
MARMOT BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper air pattern is rather amplified this morning as a large
trough encompasses the entire Bering Sea and southern mainland of
Alaska. A secondary strong piece of baroclinic energy aloft is
digging into the North Pacific just south of the Central
Aleutians. Closer to home, where the trough axis remains centered
over the eastern Bering, broad southerly flow aloft is continuing
to spread rather moist North Pacific air into the region.
Instability remains in the low levels of the atmosphere as per the
latest upper air soundings from Anchorage, and that instability
can be seen on RADAR in the form of strong convective rain showers
this morning from the Kenai Peninsula north into the Susitna
Valley.

The digging trough into the North Pacific is beginning to tap into
a rather moist subtropical air stream, and satellite imagery is
detecting quite a few thunderstorms forming near the cyclonic
left exit region of the jet streak. Eventually, energy from this
trough will eject northward toward southern Alaska, along with a
robust warm front. This will bring continued areas of rain into
southern Alaska through Thursday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in very good agreement now with the large
scale pattern through four days. This is quite an improvement over
the past few days where large variability grew by day three.
However, the small scale details, which are very important in this
fast southerly flow regime, remain rather uncertain. This impacts
precipitation timing, distribution, and amounts by late Wednesday
into Thursday. The Canadian model sends one piece of intact
energy into Southcentral, with the impact being a dramatically
more widespread and long lasting rain event. The ECMWF depicts two
weak pieces of energy aloft, and the result is a much drier and
quick hitting lighter rain event. This forecast, due to
uncertainty, takes a middle ground approach favoring the GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main upper level disturbance that brought widespread rain to
the area yesterday has moved off to the north, but moist and
unstable cyclonic flow remains in its wake. A plethora of
convective showers will remain over the area, especially this
morning, as models and water vapor satellite imagery show a weak
additional disturbance drifting northward up Cook Inlet. The Gulf
Coast will continue to see the higher rainfall amounts over the
next 24 hours, but in general the region will dry a bit from the
deluge yesterday. By Wednesday morning we'll be headed back into
the washing machine again, as widespread rain and a bit of wind
move back into the area and persist through around midday
Thursday. This will be in response to a vigorous 100+ kt
southwesterly jet stream pumping moisture straight up Cook Inlet.
Once again the Prince William Sound and Gulf Coast areas should
see the highest totals (on the order of several additional inches
of rain) with lower amounts at most inland locations (closer to an
inch, except in the Susitna Valley where higher amounts are
likely). The trick with this second big surge of rain will be the
exact timing and interaction between two separate upper level
disturbances moving through Southern Alaska. The differences among
the models are subtle, but these differences are manifesting in
some significant location and rainfall-total differences.
Regardless, what we can confidently say is that this pattern of
deep-layer southwest flow is an open door for copious atmospheric
moisture to saturate the area, and this very wet pattern will
continue into the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The elongated trough stretching down along the west coast and out
across the Aleutians is bringing a series of waves over southwest
Alaska from the south. These waves are continuing to bring light
rain to the area which will continue through Wednesday when a
stronger wave moves in bringing more widespread rain. The pattern
will then shift with weak ridging moving in late Thursday helping
to clear out much of the rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The area is characterized with ridging over the western Bering and
troughing over the eastern Bering with stronger northerly flow in
between. The ridging, which is starting to push east, has also
helped with fog formation. As the ridging pushes east and
eventually south on Wednesday a new system will move into the
Bering from the west. For the most part it will impact only the
Bering, but its front will stretch far enough south to bring rain
to the Western Aleutians late Wednesday and the Central Aleutians
Thursday. Then it will stall and dissipate on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A pattern shift will begin to unfold Thursday evening as the
southwesterly flow aloft that has continued to usher in a very
moist air mass begins to shut off. The level highs over the Gulf
of Alaska and over the northwest Pacific will begin to de-amplify
which will allow a more zonal upper level flow pattern to develop
Friday into Saturday which should cut off much of the rainfall
except for the immediate northern gulf coast and parts of
southwest Alaska. By Saturday, surface high pressure will begin
to build across the Alaska mainland which should be more than
enough to inhibit widespread rainfall. If ensemble guidances are
right (and they have all been trending in this direction the past
24 hours), then this upcoming Friday, Saturday and Sunday time
frame should be quite dry with breaks in the clouds observed and
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across much of the state.
Model guidance begins to struggle quite significantly on Monday
and Tuesday as models diverge on whether the high pressure gets
cut off across the state or whether a series of shortwave ridges
and troughs are observed as waves propagate eastward along the
zonal upper level flow. One thing that looks likely for Monday and
Tuesday is that rainfall chances look to increase but to what
extent is unknown at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 125.
MARINE...Gale Warning 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MC