Small Craft Advisory 672, NWS Anchorage, AK

538 
FZAK52 PAFC 241147
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250030-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1009 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHEAST OF NELSON LAGOON MOVES INLAND NEAR
KUSKOKWIM BAY TONIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL BERING LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING
BY LATE THU NIGHT. A 1015 MB LOW MOVES TO 125 NM WEST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-250030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-250030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-250030-
BRISTOL BAY-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-250030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT SW 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-250030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ171-250030-
UNALASKA BAY-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ172-250030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-250030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-250030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-250030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-250030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-250030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-250030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-250030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-250030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-250030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-250030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
347 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S
WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

252 
FZAK52 PAFC 242341
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251300-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN BERING WEAKENS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A
995 MB LOW DEVELOPS 480 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO 1015 MB AS IT MOVES TO 210 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND THU NIGHT. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO 1019 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 270 NM NORTH OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND SAT NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT IN THE WESTERN BERING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT AND
STALLS THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ150-251300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-251300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-251300-
BRISTOL BAY-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-251300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-251300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ171-251300-
UNALASKA BAY-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ172-251300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ173-251300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-251300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-251300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ176-251300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-251300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-251300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-251300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-251300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-251300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-251300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
341 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S
WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper air pattern is rather amplified this morning as a large
trough encompasses the entire Bering Sea and southern mainland of
Alaska. A secondary strong piece of baroclinic energy aloft is
digging into the North Pacific just south of the Central
Aleutians. Closer to home, where the trough axis remains centered
over the eastern Bering, broad southerly flow aloft is continuing
to spread rather moist North Pacific air into the region.
Instability remains in the low levels of the atmosphere as per the
latest upper air soundings from Anchorage, and that instability
can be seen on RADAR in the form of strong convective rain showers
this morning from the Kenai Peninsula north into the Susitna
Valley.

The digging trough into the North Pacific is beginning to tap into
a rather moist subtropical air stream, and satellite imagery is
detecting quite a few thunderstorms forming near the cyclonic
left exit region of the jet streak. Eventually, energy from this
trough will eject northward toward southern Alaska, along with a
robust warm front. This will bring continued areas of rain into
southern Alaska through Thursday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in very good agreement now with the large
scale pattern through four days. This is quite an improvement over
the past few days where large variability grew by day three.
However, the small scale details, which are very important in this
fast southerly flow regime, remain rather uncertain. This impacts
precipitation timing, distribution, and amounts by late Wednesday
into Thursday. The Canadian model sends one piece of intact
energy into Southcentral, with the impact being a dramatically
more widespread and long lasting rain event. The ECMWF depicts two
weak pieces of energy aloft, and the result is a much drier and
quick hitting lighter rain event. This forecast, due to
uncertainty, takes a middle ground approach favoring the GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main upper level disturbance that brought widespread rain to
the area yesterday has moved off to the north, but moist and
unstable cyclonic flow remains in its wake. A plethora of
convective showers will remain over the area, especially this
morning, as models and water vapor satellite imagery show a weak
additional disturbance drifting northward up Cook Inlet. The Gulf
Coast will continue to see the higher rainfall amounts over the
next 24 hours, but in general the region will dry a bit from the
deluge yesterday. By Wednesday morning we'll be headed back into
the washing machine again, as widespread rain and a bit of wind
move back into the area and persist through around midday
Thursday. This will be in response to a vigorous 100+ kt
southwesterly jet stream pumping moisture straight up Cook Inlet.
Once again the Prince William Sound and Gulf Coast areas should
see the highest totals (on the order of several additional inches
of rain) with lower amounts at most inland locations (closer to an
inch, except in the Susitna Valley where higher amounts are
likely). The trick with this second big surge of rain will be the
exact timing and interaction between two separate upper level
disturbances moving through Southern Alaska. The differences among
the models are subtle, but these differences are manifesting in
some significant location and rainfall-total differences.
Regardless, what we can confidently say is that this pattern of
deep-layer southwest flow is an open door for copious atmospheric
moisture to saturate the area, and this very wet pattern will
continue into the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The elongated trough stretching down along the west coast and out
across the Aleutians is bringing a series of waves over southwest
Alaska from the south. These waves are continuing to bring light
rain to the area which will continue through Wednesday when a
stronger wave moves in bringing more widespread rain. The pattern
will then shift with weak ridging moving in late Thursday helping
to clear out much of the rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The area is characterized with ridging over the western Bering and
troughing over the eastern Bering with stronger northerly flow in
between. The ridging, which is starting to push east, has also
helped with fog formation. As the ridging pushes east and
eventually south on Wednesday a new system will move into the
Bering from the west. For the most part it will impact only the
Bering, but its front will stretch far enough south to bring rain
to the Western Aleutians late Wednesday and the Central Aleutians
Thursday. Then it will stall and dissipate on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A pattern shift will begin to unfold Thursday evening as the
southwesterly flow aloft that has continued to usher in a very
moist air mass begins to shut off. The level highs over the Gulf
of Alaska and over the northwest Pacific will begin to de-amplify
which will allow a more zonal upper level flow pattern to develop
Friday into Saturday which should cut off much of the rainfall
except for the immediate northern gulf coast and parts of
southwest Alaska. By Saturday, surface high pressure will begin
to build across the Alaska mainland which should be more than
enough to inhibit widespread rainfall. If ensemble guidances are
right (and they have all been trending in this direction the past
24 hours), then this upcoming Friday, Saturday and Sunday time
frame should be quite dry with breaks in the clouds observed and
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across much of the state.
Model guidance begins to struggle quite significantly on Monday
and Tuesday as models diverge on whether the high pressure gets
cut off across the state or whether a series of shortwave ridges
and troughs are observed as waves propagate eastward along the
zonal upper level flow. One thing that looks likely for Monday and
Tuesday is that rainfall chances look to increase but to what
extent is unknown at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 125.
MARINE...Gale Warning 411.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...MC