Small Craft Advisory 663, NWS Anchorage, AK

022 
FZAK51 PAFC 210400 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211615-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A
FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN AND PERSISTS THROUGH
MON. A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF BY SUN EVENING AND
MOVES NORTH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY LATE MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-211615-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211615-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211615-
RESURRECTION BAY-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211615-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211615-
PORT VALDEZ-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211615-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211615-
VALDEZ ARM-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211615-
PASSAGE CANAL-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211615-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211615-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211615-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211615-
CHINIAK BAY-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211615-
MARMOT BAY-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211615-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211615-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211615-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211615-
KACHEMAK BAY-
800 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

348 
FZAK51 PAFC 211152
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220100-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN THEN MOVES TO THE CENTRAL
GULF BY MON NIGHT. A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF BY SUN
EVENING AND MOVES NORTH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST MON MORNING...THEN
STALLS THERE THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-220100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 40 KT NEAR THE COAST. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220100-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.

$$

PKZ127-220100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220100-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 
10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220100-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220100-
MARMOT BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...STRONGEST
ALONG THE OUTER BAY. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

993 
FZAK51 PAFC 212356
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221245-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY MON
MORNING. A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVES NORTH TO THE NORTH GULF COAST MON AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS
THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ119-221245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 40 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-221245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-221245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BECOMING 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-221245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-221245-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-221245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-221245-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-221245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT EARLY INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-221245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-221245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-221245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT EARLY DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-221245-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ137-221245-
MARMOT BAY-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-221245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-221245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-221245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-221245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

719 
FZAK51 PAFC 221141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230015-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
MIDDAY...THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE 
GULF THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-230015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE INCREASING TO 40 KT NEAR 
THE COAST. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE 
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS 3 FT. 
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230015-
PORT VALDEZ-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230015-
VALDEZ ARM-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230015-
CHINIAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230015-
MARMOT BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S TO 15 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

008 
FZAK51 PAFC 222356
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231230-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATES BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-231230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 30 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231230-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231230-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT TOWARD THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231230-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231230-
MARMOT BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A deamplifying and weakening positive tilt upper level trough
centered over the Gulf of Alaska is moving east this morning. A
positive tilt shortwave ridge axis centered over the Eastern
Bering Sea and southwest Alaska is moving east behind the
departing trough and ahead of a series of shortwave troughs
moving into the Bering Sea. A rather stout warm front is moving
quickly across the southwest Bering Sea in conjunction with the
dual shortwave troughs farther north. The 00z Shemya upper air
observation sampled an 850 hpa temperature of 17 Celsius in the
middle of the warm sector.

Closer to the mainland, the leading edge of the warm front aloft
is already pushing into the Kuskokwim Delta with rain spreading
into the coast. In Southcentral, weak instability and a low Froude
number flow is allowing for lower ceilings and sporadic showers to
back up against the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains. Eventually
the flow will become more southerly with dissipating showers, but
low and mid clouds will likely hang around through most of the
day.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
large scale weather pattern through Tuesday. They remain in mostly
good agreement with smaller scale details, but they do differ with
the strength of the broad trough as it amplifies and moves into
the northern Gulf of Alaska Sunday and Monday. They also differ
with respect to precipitation across inland Alaska, especially
with respect to the degree of downslope drying. For now, the GFS
was favored as a model of choice which is stronger with the front
as it crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into the northern Gulf.
Precipitation wise, the wetter Canadian models were favored for
most inland locations as downslope drying for locations west of
the Copper Basin should be mitigated by moist south to southwest
flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A little bit of remaining low level instability (with 0-3km lapse
rates of 6 degrees C/km on the 12z Anchorage sounding) will combine
with upslope flow to produce a few showers along the west side of
the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains this morning. Otherwise, the
short-wave ridge transiting overhead will provide a dry start to
the day across Southcentral.

Attention will quickly shift to the approaching upper trough and
surface warm front approaching from the west. As the upper ridge
slides by isentropic lift will begin across the Cook Inlet to
Susitna Valley corridor and combine with strengthening upslope
flow to generate areas of rain this afternoon through this
evening. Have moved up timing of this by 3 to 6 hours based on
latest guidance. This area of isentropic lift will then spread
eastward overnight to Prince William Sounds and portions of the
Copper River Basin.

Sunday through Sunday night looks very wet across nearly all of
Southcentral as a plethora of waves moves through the long-wave
trough, rotating northeastward across Southcentral. Amplification
of the upper flow will cause eastward progression of the surface
front to stall as it reaches the western Gulf. It will also lead
to strengthening of the southerly jet and development of strong
gap winds. With lots of moisture, dynamic lift, and strong upslope
flow, expect moderate to heavy rain for much of the area. Recent
weeks of rain have saturated the ground in most places and rivers
and streams are running fairly high. Thus, will have to keep a
close eye out for flooding potential. Right now it looks like the
most likely area to see some minor river or stream flooding would
be the Susitna Valley which will see a prolonged period of strong
upslope flow leading to heavier rain.

Although there will be a southeasterly component to low level
flow on Sunday and Sunday Night producing some aspect of downslope
flow along the Kenai and Chugach Mountains, mid to upper level
flow will be out of the south to southwest. As mentioned above,
there will also be a lot of vertical motion generated from dynamic
lift as a series of short-wave move through. Therefore, the
Western Kenai up to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley can expect
to see steady rain despite the winds. Rainfall intensity and total
amounts will be quite a bit less than in upslope areas. Lastly,
some of the wind will bend northward out of the gaps, affecting
portions of Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Winds will also
be quite robust along the Copper River.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A front currently pushing southward across western Alaska will be
the primary driver for the rainy conditions forecast for the next
couple days in southwest Alaska. A shortwave trough moving
through the northern jet will amplify as it digs southward across
the eastern Bering and the west coast of Alaska over the next
couple days. With plenty of atmospheric moisture in place ahead of
the front, and lots of energy in the upper levels associated with
the digging trough, the stage will be set for significant
rainfall throughout the day today over the entire area. Southwest
flow ahead of the front will bring the warm moist air from off the
Bering into the coast. This will make for fog and low ceiling
issues for coastal locales both this morning and tonight.

The eastward progress of the upper level trough will slow with
time, as warmer air is pumped northward ahead of the trough. This
in turn will lead to the moisture taking a longer time to exit
southwest Alaska. Thus, the wet weather will continue through
Sunday as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The front over the central Bering will continue to track south and
eastward through the eastern Bering today. Ahead of this front,
exceptionally warm air in the low to mid levels is moving across
the central and western Bering/Aleutians. This is setting up a
very strong inversion over that area. This inversion is trapping
the low-level moisture near the surface, providing excellent
environmental conditions for persistent fog and very low cloud
heights. This warm air will persist through the day Sunday over
the western and central Aleutians.

The other weather story will be the gusty winds associated with
the frontal approach. The winds will impact northern areas near
Nunivak Island through this morning, then push south towards the
Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians through the day Sunday.
Sustained winds in excess of 30 mph with higher gusts can be
expected as the front moves through the eastern Bering and Bristol
Bay through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active weather pattern continues to headline the extended
forecast heading into the next week. A broad upper level trough
will dig southward and encompass the Central and Eastern
Bering/Aleutians, and eastward over southwest mainland beginning
Sunday. This trough will begin to elongate and stall on Monday,
with its trough axis persisting over the southwest Coast and
Alaska Peninsula through mid week, and briefly splitting the
energy north and south on Tuesday night. Models are now coming
into better agreement with the GFS's initial solution of bringing
the southern portion of this energy back northward and reinforcing
the broad upper level trough over the eastern half of the Bering
and southern mainland by Wednesday night. The GFS and EC now both
show a stronger system forming at the surface and coinciding with
the northward moving energy mentioned above, but given the
consistent shifting in the model solutions over the past few runs,
confidence still remains lower. The preferred GFS solution shows
this surface low and associated front tracking into the southern
mainland and Gulf Wednesday night, bringing more rainy and windy
conditions to the southern mainland through the end of the week.

A second system will enter the western Bering early Thursday
morning, flattening out the ridging over the area and bringing
another round of wet weather to the area as it crosses through the
Bering and into the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula by the
end of the week.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 150 155.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW
LONG TERM...Pepe

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1015 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

AKZ111-221500-
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
1015 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...EROSION ALERT FOR THE MATANUSKA RIVER FROM MILEPOST 13 TO 15 OF THE
OLD GLENN HIGHWAY NEAR THE BUTTE...

THE FOLLOW MESSAGE IS RELAYED ON BEHALF OF THE MAT-SU BOROUGH
DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES.

THE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES IS
NOTIFYING RESIDENTS BETWEEN THE MAUDE ROAD EXTENSION/MILEPOST 13
AND MILEPOST 15 OF THE OLD GLENN HIGHWAY THAT INCREASED RATES OF
RIVERBANK EROSION ARE BEING OBSERVED. THERE IS NO NEED TO EVACUATE
CURRENTLY, BUT RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN PLANNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT CONTINUED EROSION MAY ALLOW WATER FROM THE MATANUSKA RIVER TO
FLOW INTO LOWER GROUND BETWEEN THE RIVER AND THE HIGHWAY AND MAY
IMPACT HOMES. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO SAFER GROUND
ON SHORT NOTICE. THIS INCLUDES GATHERING ALL IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS
AND COLLECTING MEDICATIONS, PHOTOS AND PET SUPPLIES.

THE MATANUSKA-SUSITNA BOROUGH DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES
AND THE BUTTE FIRE DEPARTMENT WILL BE MONITORING AND PATROLLING
THE AREAS OF CONCERN TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR FURTHER ACTION UP TO
AND INCLUDING EVACUATION. IF AN EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED BY THE
BOROUGH, THE RED CROSS OF ALASKA WILL PARTNER WITH THE MATANUSKA-
SUSITNA BOROUGH TO ESTABLISH A SHELTER.

THE MATANUSKA RIVER HAS A LONG HISTORY OF RIVERBANK EROSION AT
MANY POINTS ALONG ITS LENGTH. PREVIOUS STUDIES INDICATE THAT BANK
EROSION CAN HAPPEN AT BOTH LOW AND HIGH WATER LEVELS. RESIDENTS
SHOULD MAINTAIN VIGILANCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE OPEN WATER
PERIOD AND ARE ENCOURAGED TO HAVE AN EMERGENCY PLAN IN PLACE IN
THE EVENT OF RAPID EROSION OR CHANNEL CHANGE.

ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS NO NEED TO EVACUATE AT THIS TIME. IF AN
EVACUATION BECOMES NECESSARY, YOU WILL BE CONTACTED BY BOROUGH
OFFICIALS.