Small Craft Advisory 654, NWS Anchorage, AK

619 
FZAK52 PAFC 181157
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-190045-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1009 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTH OF KING COVE AT
1017 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN BERING MIDDAY FRI...THEN MOVES TO THE
EASTERN BERING BY LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-190045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-190045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-190045-
BRISTOL BAY-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-190045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-190045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-190045-
UNALASKA BAY-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-190045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-190045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-190045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-190045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-190045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-190045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-190045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-190045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-190045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-190045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-190045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
357 AM AKDT THU AUG 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. DRIZZLE.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. DRIZZLE.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level low remains just south of the eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula this morning and continues to slowly
trek northward. Associated with this low is a warm front that
stretches from Bristol Bay into the central Gulf of Alaska.
Looking at satellite imagery, there is a deep trough associated
with the upper level low that is drawing moisture toward the state
from as far south as the 37th parallel. At the surface some
showers remain associated with a decaying trough across the
northern Gulf Coast. Along the previously mentioned frontal zone,
showers are falling across the Bristol Bay region and eastward to
Kodiak Island. An earlier scatterometer pass shows gale force
winds are present across Shelikof Strait and eastern Bering Sea as
well as on the backside (west side) of the low pressure center
itself.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in pretty good agreement overall as a warm
front spreads into southern Alaska this afternoon and evening. The
biggest model discrepancy continues to center on a vigorous
shortwave that is currently diving down the backside of the
longwave trough into the northern Pacific. As this shortwave digs
back up the front of the trough into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday
there is some uncertainty as to how it will interact with the
parent circulation over the Alaska Peninsula. The global models
all generally take this disturbance and its associated surface low
straight into the northeast gulf coast between Cordova and
Yakutat. Meanwhile, the NAM depicts a more complicated interaction
with the main low pressure center that results in this shortwave
being deflected further to the west toward the Kenai Peninsula,
which would result in more widespread rain for many of the
southcentral Alaska population centers. At this point the global
solutions seem most likely, especially given the fact that the NAM
struggles to handle features near the edges of its model domain, a
weakness that is most evident in high-amplitude flow patterns like
the one currently in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A frontal system will lift northward across the Gulf today
bringing widespread rain and wind to the Gulf coast and Prince
William Sound. Conditions will start out fairly nice over
interior Southcentral with a short-wave ridge overhead, but this
will quickly exit to the north while an area of upper difluence combines
with some remaining weak instability to trigger isolated to
scattered convection this afternoon. As the front pushes onshore
of the north Gulf coast fairly strong easterly flow will limit
precipitation in the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. In
fact, would expect some areas will only see sprinkles out of this.

The upper jet will quickly drive the deep moisture with this
system eastward to the northeast Gulf tonight. Meanwhile, a
triple point low will form south of Cape Suckling and track to
near Yakutat. The combination of these will cause the front to
rapidly weaken over Southcentral tonight, so expect precipitation
to diminish overnight through early Thursday morning for all but
the far eastern Copper River Basin. Weak ridging will build in
behind this system, but deep and moist southwest flow combined
with some weak impulses moving through the upper ridge will
maintain mostly cloudy skies with a few showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Sat)...

The Low slowly decaying over the Alaska Peninsula will continue
to spread showers over the area through Friday. A slight chance
of thunderstorms is also possible this afternoon near Sleetmute.
Showers with a front from a low near the Bering Strait will begin
to spread across the region Fri night into Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Sat)...

As the low over the Alaska Peninsula weakens, gale force winds will
diminish tonight and small craft advisory winds will end on
Thursday. Later on Thursday a front from the Bering Strait Low
will begin to make its way across the Bering and Aleutians. It
will be accompanied by showers tonight over the western Aleutians
that will spread to southwest Alaska Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7, from previous discussion)...
Ridging will dominate the Western Bering and Aleutians from
Thursday through the beginning of the weekend, and then begin to
flatten out and make way for some weak upper level waves to track
over the area. These waves along with a weak surface low should
promote some cloudy and showery conditions over the area through
Monday. Over the Eastern Bering, a weakening vertically stacked
low will provide ample cloud cover in moist southerly/onshore
flow, and showery conditions over the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest mainland through Friday evening. These conditions will
briefly taper off through Saturday morning as a brief stint of
weak ridging passes over the area ahead of the next system.
Further East, an upper level shortwave wraps around the base of
the trough over the eastern Bering and tracks over the Gulf Friday
morning. At the surface a weak surface low develops and will bring
some rainy and gusty conditions to the Gulf and areas surrounding
the Gulf coast. As of now models are keeping the typical
downsloped areas in southeast flow (Anchorage, Matanuska Valley,
and the Western Kenai Peninsula) more on the dry side. However,
model agreement at this time was not the greatest, which leaves
some potential for precipitation to make it into these areas.

A strong trough will then swing down over the Western part of the
state from the North late in the weekend, but there is more
disagreement amongst the models on how to handle this feature.
However, there is at least decent agreement that the trough will
move onshore the west coast of the state sometime around the late
Sunday/early Monday timeframe, meaning that impacts will likely
be rain over the Southern Mainland for at least the first half of
next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 130 131 138 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LIW/AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP