Small Craft Advisory 651, NWS Anchorage, AK

877 
FZAK51 PAFC 172319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181145-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
TONIGHT. A PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO 200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181145-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181145-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181145-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181145-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 PM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The weak upper level low that's been the prevalent across the
northern Gulf, continues to weaken this afternoon. To the south
of Dutch Harbor is a much stronger low that is deepening as it
moves to the northeast. Attached to this low are warm and cold
fronts. Both of these features will continue to move to the
northeast impacting weather across much of southcentral starting
tomorrow. Farther upstream of this low is potent little shortwave
that is moving south across the Bering Sea. This is expected to
transit around the upper level low and impact the region later
this week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The major atmospheric models are in good agreement that the slow
moving and vertically stacked low spinning south of the Alaska
Peninsula this morning will continue to slowly churn northeastward
toward Southcentral Alaska through this weekend. Once a warm front
pushes through the Cook Inlet area on Wednesday night, the
southern mainland will fall back into a wet pattern vulnerable to
embedded shortwaves moving through the southerly/southwesterly
flow. The NAM and GFS are much more aligned this afternoon with
bringing a modest shortwave through the northern Gulf coast
Thursday. In the longer term, all models are in agreement with the
evolution of the upper level low south of the AKPEN. It is progged
to cross Cold Bay overnight Thursday while sling-shotting an
approaching shortwave to bring active weather into the early
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The remnants of the trough over the northern Gulf Coast will
dissipate this evening leaving solar heating of a marginally
unstable atmosphere the primary trigger for convection this
afternoon and evening. The Susitna Valley, Copper River Basin and
portions of the western Kenai Peninsula look like they will have
the best odds to see an isolated thunderstorm or two.

The next frontal system will reach Kodiak Island late tonight and
continue north across the Gulf and Kenai Peninsula Wednesday.
While windy conditions and widespread rain will accompany the
front itself, further north the approaching front will stabilize
conditions and diminish shower coverage over inland Southcentral
Wednesday. Also out ahead of the front, a ridge of high pressure
along the northern Gulf Coast will strengthen southeasterly gap
winds briefly Wednesday afternoon and evening before a developing
frontal wave lifting north into the central Gulf rapidly flattens
the onshore pressure gradient. This frontal wave will lift across
the northern Gulf coast and track inland Thursday to be followed
by another low following a similar track Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The southwest mainland will reside squarely within a col region
through this evening, leading to diminished shower activity compared
to previous days given the absence of the thermal trough or any
significant upper level features. However, modest instability
will still support the chance for a few thunderstorms over
primarily northern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley and Delta through
this evening. Steady rain will then move over the Bristol Bay
region late tonight as a North Pacific front arrives along the
coast. The front will quickly break apart as it pushes inland on
Wednesday, keeping a showery regime in place through Thursday as
the parent low moves over the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The system currently approaching the Akpen from the North Pacific
will keep the most active weather focused over the southeast
Bering through Thursday. The Akpen and Eastern Aleutians will see
an initial period of heavier rain and gale force winds with the
front tonight, followed by a more showery regime which will linger
through Thursday as the low gradually weakens in place. Elsewhere,
high pressure will maintain a typical stratus/fog regime over
much of the rest of the Bering for the next several days. A weak
frontal boundary will clip the western tip of the Aleutians with
some precipitation through Thursday, but will fail to make much
eastward progress with an upper level ridge residing over the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Ridging will dominate the Western Bering and Aleutians from
Thursday through the beginning of the weekend, and then begin to
flatten out and make way for some weak upper level waves to track
over the area. These waves along with a weak surface low should
promote some cloudy and showery conditions over the area through
Monday. Over the Eastern Bering, a weakening vertically stacked
low will provide ample cloud cover in moist southerly/onshore
flow, and showery conditions over the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest mainland through Friday evening. These conditions will
briefly taper off through saturday morning, as a brief stint of
weak ridging passes over the area ahead of the next system.
Further East, a upper level shortwave wraps around the base of the
trough over the eastern Bering and tracks over the Gulf Friday
morning. At the surface a weak surface low develops and will bring
some rainy and gusty conditions to the Gulf and areas surrounding
the Gulf coast. As of now models are keeping the typical
downsloped areas in southeast flow (Anchorage, Matanuska Valley,
and the Western Kenai Peninsula) more on the dry side. However,
model agreement at this time was not the greatest, which leaves
some potential for precipitation to make it into these areas.

A strong trough will then swing down over the western part of the
state from the north late in the weekend, but there is more
disagreement amongst the models on how to handle this feature.
However, there is at least decent agreement that the trough will
come sometime around the late Sunday/early Monday somewhere near
the west coast, meaning that impacts will likely be rain for the
Southern Mainland early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PEPE