Small Craft Advisory 653, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 17, 2016, 3:19 PM AKDT (23:19 UTC)

Expired

Aug 18, 2016, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

877 
FZAK51 PAFC 172319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181145-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
TONIGHT. A PACIFIC LOW TRACKS TO 200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181145-
PORT VALDEZ-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181145-
VALDEZ ARM-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181145-
CHINIAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181145-
MARMOT BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
319 PM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 17, 4:59 AM AKDT, 10 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT WED AUG 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level low remains just south of the eastern Aleutians
and southern Alaska Peninsula this morning and continues to slowly
trek northward. Associated with this low is a warm front that
stretches from Bristol Bay into the central Gulf of Alaska.
Looking at satellite imagery, there is a deep trough associated
with the upper level low that is drawing moisture toward the state
from as far south as the 37th parallel. At the surface some
showers remain associated with a decaying trough across the
northern Gulf Coast. Along the previously mentioned frontal zone,
showers are falling across the Bristol Bay region and eastward to
Kodiak Island. An earlier scatterometer pass shows gale force
winds are present across Shelikof Strait and eastern Bering Sea as
well as on the backside (west side) of the low pressure center
itself.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in pretty good agreement overall as a warm
front spreads into southern Alaska this afternoon and evening. The
biggest model discrepancy continues to center on a vigorous
shortwave that is currently diving down the backside of the
longwave trough into the northern Pacific. As this shortwave digs
back up the front of the trough into the Gulf of Alaska on Friday
there is some uncertainty as to how it will interact with the
parent circulation over the Alaska Peninsula. The global models
all generally take this disturbance and its associated surface low
straight into the northeast gulf coast between Cordova and
Yakutat. Meanwhile, the NAM depicts a more complicated interaction
with the main low pressure center that results in this shortwave
being deflected further to the west toward the Kenai Peninsula,
which would result in more widespread rain for many of the
southcentral Alaska population centers. At this point the global
solutions seem most likely, especially given the fact that the NAM
struggles to handle features near the edges of its model domain, a
weakness that is most evident in high-amplitude flow patterns like
the one currently in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A frontal system will lift northward across the Gulf today
bringing widespread rain and wind to the Gulf coast and Prince
William Sound. Conditions will start out fairly nice over
interior Southcentral with a short-wave ridge overhead, but this
will quickly exit to the north while an area of upper difluence combines
with some remaining weak instability to trigger isolated to
scattered convection this afternoon. As the front pushes onshore
of the north Gulf coast fairly strong easterly flow will limit
precipitation in the lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. In
fact, would expect some areas will only see sprinkles out of this.

The upper jet will quickly drive the deep moisture with this
system eastward to the northeast Gulf tonight. Meanwhile, a
triple point low will form south of Cape Suckling and track to
near Yakutat. The combination of these will cause the front to
rapidly weaken over Southcentral tonight, so expect precipitation
to diminish overnight through early Thursday morning for all but
the far eastern Copper River Basin. Weak ridging will build in
behind this system, but deep and moist southwest flow combined
with some weak impulses moving through the upper ridge will
maintain mostly cloudy skies with a few showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through Sat)...

The Low slowly decaying over the Alaska Peninsula will continue
to spread showers over the area through Friday. A slight chance
of thunderstorms is also possible this afternoon near Sleetmute.
Showers with a front from a low near the Bering Strait will begin
to spread across the region Fri night into Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through Sat)...

As the low over the Alaska Peninsula weakens, gale force winds will
diminish tonight and small craft advisory winds will end on
Thursday. Later on Thursday a front from the Bering Strait Low
will begin to make its way across the Bering and Aleutians. It
will be accompanied by showers tonight over the western Aleutians
that will spread to southwest Alaska Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7, from previous discussion)...
Ridging will dominate the Western Bering and Aleutians from
Thursday through the beginning of the weekend, and then begin to
flatten out and make way for some weak upper level waves to track
over the area. These waves along with a weak surface low should
promote some cloudy and showery conditions over the area through
Monday. Over the Eastern Bering, a weakening vertically stacked
low will provide ample cloud cover in moist southerly/onshore
flow, and showery conditions over the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest mainland through Friday evening. These conditions will
briefly taper off through Saturday morning as a brief stint of
weak ridging passes over the area ahead of the next system.
Further East, an upper level shortwave wraps around the base of
the trough over the eastern Bering and tracks over the Gulf Friday
morning. At the surface a weak surface low develops and will bring
some rainy and gusty conditions to the Gulf and areas surrounding
the Gulf coast. As of now models are keeping the typical
downsloped areas in southeast flow (Anchorage, Matanuska Valley,
and the Western Kenai Peninsula) more on the dry side. However,
model agreement at this time was not the greatest, which leaves
some potential for precipitation to make it into these areas.

A strong trough will then swing down over the Western part of the
state from the North late in the weekend, but there is more
disagreement amongst the models on how to handle this feature.
However, there is at least decent agreement that the trough will
move onshore the west coast of the state sometime around the late
Sunday/early Monday timeframe, meaning that impacts will likely
be rain over the Southern Mainland for at least the first half of
next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 130 131 138 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LIW/AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.