Small Craft Advisory 543, NWS Anchorage, AK

927 
FZAK51 PAFC 081200
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090045-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WEATHER
FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-090045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-090045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-090045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-090045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-090045-
PORT VALDEZ-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-090045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-090045-
VALDEZ ARM-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-090045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-090045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-090045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-090045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-090045-
CHINIAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ137-090045-
MARMOT BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-090045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-090045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-090045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-090045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY LATE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

472 
FZAK51 PAFC 082351
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091245-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. 
A 1009 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 50 NM NORTH OF KODIAK CITY LATE 
SAT AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO 57N 144W LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN SOUTHEAST
OF THE GULF ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUN.

$$

PKZ119-091245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-091245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-091245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-091245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-091245-
PORT VALDEZ-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-091245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-091245-
VALDEZ ARM-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-091245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-091245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE MAINLY S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ131-091245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-091245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-091245-
CHINIAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-091245-
MARMOT BAY-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-091245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-091245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARD 
MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-091245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-091245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
351 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The broad trough that has been parked over Southwest Alaska the
past few days will finally exit into the Gulf of Alaska today.
This trough is responsible for the very moist southwest flow over
much of the Southcentral region. The result has been widespread
accumulating rainfall and plenty of low level clouds and fog.
Even as rain tapers off through the early portion of the day, the
low stratus and fog could remain an issue until around the noon
hour. By afternoon though, we should see the low pulling away and
a ridge building in from the Eastern Bering. This will allow
enough dry air to mix in from the northwest to bring more sunshine
than many places have seen in days.

In the upper level, the North Pacific ridge is still quite
dominant. However, it remains well south of our area in the North
Pacific. A piece of the Sub-Tropical Jet is moving over top of it,
with a piece of the Polar Jet diving down over Southwest AK. These
two then join to form a coupled-jet near the Alaska Peninsula and
will serve to usher the trough out of the mainland. Further west,
a vertically stacked low is tracking slowly into the Western
Aleutians. Over the Arctic, the potent upper level low remains
intact. This low is responsible for sending various pieces of
energy down through the western half of the state. It will once
again play a role by early next week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in very good agreement through the short-term. The
forecast is heavily weighted on the NAM and hi-res models because
of their increased resolution. Overall, the forecast confidence is
above normal and minimal updates were needed. The few variables
that remain rather tricky at this time are fog development and
thunderstorm potential over the next few days. Fog, or at least
low stratus, still look on track this morning with some of the
overnight model runs even more inclined to include it.
Thunderstorms have been stymied the past few days due to cooler
onshore flow and abundant cloud cover. But we do expect things to
pick up over the next few days as the flow switches to more over-
land and the thermal trough gets established.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As the low in the northern Gulf moves quickly away from the area,
expect a gradual transition as northerly offshore flow increases.
Plentiful low-level moisture remaining from the last several days
of rain/shower activity will mean sheltered areas, particularly
near and along the mountains, will be much slower to clear. As
warming/heating commences today and Friday, showers and possibly
some thunderstorms will develop along the mountains, particularly
the Talkeetna Mountains. Toward the center of the valleys, where
the clearing and associated warming and drying trend will be more
abrupt, temperatures will warm above seasonal normals heading into
the weekend.

For the marine areas, the main concern through tonight will be
increasing offshore winds especially out of west-east terrain gaps
as the surface low over the northern Gulf moves south and east
away from the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Shower activity will continue to taper off across the Southwest
Mainland as the upper level low over the region dives south into
the Gulf of Alaska this morning. But with some residual cold air
aloft from the passing upper low, and some drying out of the
upper levels ahead of it, enhanced mid-level lapse rates will be
evident again today mainly along the Alaska Range. Shower activity
will remain mainly along the Alaska Range this afternoon and
evening. Even with the loss of synoptic forcing, an errant
thunderstorm or two along the mountains remains within the realm
of possibilities. As high pressure pushes over much of the
Southwest Mainland by this afternoon, and a warm front moves into
the area by Friday morning, warmer temperatures with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s are expected through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A front will continue to push across the Western and Central
Bering Sea today before moving into the Eastern Bering this
evening. A band of rainfall along the leading edge of the front
will quickly push eastward as the parent low tracks into the
Central Bering by Friday. Fog looks like a pretty significant
concern as a moisture rich air mass comes in contact with a very
stable air mass ahead of the frontal boundary. Conditions will
improve as high pressure over the Eastern Bering begins moving
inland over Southwest Alaska by this afternoon. However, as the
next front tracks into the Eastern Bering and Aleutians tonight
and Friday, this will bring wet and gusty conditions over the
eastern portion of the Bering and Aleutians through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active pattern will continue through the weekend with several
upper level features progressing through the area. One of which
will be a vort max that by Friday night will be over the Alaska
Peninsula and will quickly track off to the southeast. There is
good consistency with this feature but it will have minimal impact
except for bringing rain to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay
areas.

The next feature is more problematic. There is good consistency
that a trough will swing down through southern Alaska sometime on
Sunday but where exactly it tracks and its exact timing are
causing problems. The EC has a very strong vort max that seems
unlikely in this pattern so a solution closer to the GFS and
ensemble means was preferred. This would bring a lighter rain to
areas around southern Alaska on Sunday as opposed to the
potentially heavier rain that the EC would bring. Early next week
a ridge will then build in over the Western Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIW/CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK