Small Craft Advisory 542, NWS Anchorage, AK

272 
FZAK52 PAFC 081158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090115-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1007 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 160 NM NORTH OF
SAINT PAUL THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-090115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-090115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-090115-
BRISTOL BAY-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-090115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-090115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-090115-
UNALASKA BAY-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-090115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-090115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-090115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-090115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-090115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-090115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-090115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-090115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-090115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-090115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-090115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE
EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

305 
FZAK52 PAFC 082303
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091145-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1007 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WILL MOVE TO 150
NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-091145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-091145-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-091145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-091145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-091145-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-091145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-091145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-091145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-091145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-091145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-091145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-091145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-091145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-091145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-091145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-091145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 20
KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The broad trough that has been parked over Southwest Alaska the
past few days will finally exit into the Gulf of Alaska today.
This trough is responsible for the very moist southwest flow over
much of the Southcentral region. The result has been widespread
accumulating rainfall and plenty of low level clouds and fog.
Even as rain tapers off through the early portion of the day, the
low stratus and fog could remain an issue until around the noon
hour. By afternoon though, we should see the low pulling away and
a ridge building in from the Eastern Bering. This will allow
enough dry air to mix in from the northwest to bring more sunshine
than many places have seen in days.

In the upper level, the North Pacific ridge is still quite
dominant. However, it remains well south of our area in the North
Pacific. A piece of the Sub-Tropical Jet is moving over top of it,
with a piece of the Polar Jet diving down over Southwest AK. These
two then join to form a coupled-jet near the Alaska Peninsula and
will serve to usher the trough out of the mainland. Further west,
a vertically stacked low is tracking slowly into the Western
Aleutians. Over the Arctic, the potent upper level low remains
intact. This low is responsible for sending various pieces of
energy down through the western half of the state. It will once
again play a role by early next week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in very good agreement through the short-term. The
forecast is heavily weighted on the NAM and hi-res models because
of their increased resolution. Overall, the forecast confidence is
above normal and minimal updates were needed. The few variables
that remain rather tricky at this time are fog development and
thunderstorm potential over the next few days. Fog, or at least
low stratus, still look on track this morning with some of the
overnight model runs even more inclined to include it.
Thunderstorms have been stymied the past few days due to cooler
onshore flow and abundant cloud cover. But we do expect things to
pick up over the next few days as the flow switches to more over-
land and the thermal trough gets established.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As the low in the northern Gulf moves quickly away from the area,
expect a gradual transition as northerly offshore flow increases.
Plentiful low-level moisture remaining from the last several days
of rain/shower activity will mean sheltered areas, particularly
near and along the mountains, will be much slower to clear. As
warming/heating commences today and Friday, showers and possibly
some thunderstorms will develop along the mountains, particularly
the Talkeetna Mountains. Toward the center of the valleys, where
the clearing and associated warming and drying trend will be more
abrupt, temperatures will warm above seasonal normals heading into
the weekend.

For the marine areas, the main concern through tonight will be
increasing offshore winds especially out of west-east terrain gaps
as the surface low over the northern Gulf moves south and east
away from the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Shower activity will continue to taper off across the Southwest
Mainland as the upper level low over the region dives south into
the Gulf of Alaska this morning. But with some residual cold air
aloft from the passing upper low, and some drying out of the
upper levels ahead of it, enhanced mid-level lapse rates will be
evident again today mainly along the Alaska Range. Shower activity
will remain mainly along the Alaska Range this afternoon and
evening. Even with the loss of synoptic forcing, an errant
thunderstorm or two along the mountains remains within the realm
of possibilities. As high pressure pushes over much of the
Southwest Mainland by this afternoon, and a warm front moves into
the area by Friday morning, warmer temperatures with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s are expected through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A front will continue to push across the Western and Central
Bering Sea today before moving into the Eastern Bering this
evening. A band of rainfall along the leading edge of the front
will quickly push eastward as the parent low tracks into the
Central Bering by Friday. Fog looks like a pretty significant
concern as a moisture rich air mass comes in contact with a very
stable air mass ahead of the frontal boundary. Conditions will
improve as high pressure over the Eastern Bering begins moving
inland over Southwest Alaska by this afternoon. However, as the
next front tracks into the Eastern Bering and Aleutians tonight
and Friday, this will bring wet and gusty conditions over the
eastern portion of the Bering and Aleutians through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active pattern will continue through the weekend with several
upper level features progressing through the area. One of which
will be a vort max that by Friday night will be over the Alaska
Peninsula and will quickly track off to the southeast. There is
good consistency with this feature but it will have minimal impact
except for bringing rain to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay
areas.

The next feature is more problematic. There is good consistency
that a trough will swing down through southern Alaska sometime on
Sunday but where exactly it tracks and its exact timing are
causing problems. The EC has a very strong vort max that seems
unlikely in this pattern so a solution closer to the GFS and
ensemble means was preferred. This would bring a lighter rain to
areas around southern Alaska on Sunday as opposed to the
potentially heavier rain that the EC would bring. Early next week
a ridge will then build in over the Western Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIW/CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DK