Small Craft Advisory 541, NWS Anchorage, AK

648 
FZAK52 PAFC 072302
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081230-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW NEAR KISKA WILL MOVE TO AROUND 50 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND LATE FRI AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE FRI EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-081230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-081230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-081230-
BRISTOL BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-081230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-081230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-081230-
UNALASKA BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-081230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-081230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-081230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-081230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-081230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-081230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-081230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-081230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-081230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-081230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-081230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... 
SW 20 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

272 
FZAK52 PAFC 081158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090115-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1007 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 160 NM NORTH OF
SAINT PAUL THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-090115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-090115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-090115-
BRISTOL BAY-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-090115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-090115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-090115-
UNALASKA BAY-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-090115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-090115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-090115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-090115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-090115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-090115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-090115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-090115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. DENSE FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-090115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-090115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-090115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
358 AM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE
EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

305 
FZAK52 PAFC 082303
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091145-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1007 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW WILL MOVE TO 150
NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SAT
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-091145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-091145-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-091145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-091145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-091145-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-091145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-091145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-091145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-091145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-091145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-091145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-091145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ179-091145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-091145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-091145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-091145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW 20
KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKDT WED JUL 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large upper level low which has been spinning over the Bering
Sea for the past few days is now tracking steadily southeastward
into Bristol Bay and headed toward the Gulf of Alaska. Short-waves
tracking northward along the east side of the low are producing
widespread showers across much of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska.
12Z soundings from across this area are all very moist and show
some weak instability (with surface LIs near zero). Radar imagery
reflects this with some heavier cells embedded within the larger
area of showers. With slightly cooler air aloft moving in with
the upper low this could produce a few thunderstorms, especially
across Southwest Alaska which is closest to the low center.

Meanwhile, high pressure is building in behind the upper level
low with lots of low clouds and some fog noted across the Bering
Sea and portions of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. A large
vertically stacked low south of the Western Aleutians is lifting
slowly northward with an occluded front and steady rain approaching
the Aleutian chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance remains in good agreement with large scale
features and forecast confidence is above average. The main
challenge will be timing of showers diminishing across the
southern Alaska mainland tonight through Thursday morning and
the associated impact on TAF forecasts as widespread low clouds
and patchy fog begin to break up Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level closed low over the Bristol Bay region remains on
track to move into the lower southwestern Gulf by early Thursday
morning. This feature exits the Gulf into the North Pacific Ocean
by Thursday evening. This system continues to provide abundant
moisture accompanied by southwesterly to southerly flow streaming
moisture up through Cook Inlet into the Anchorage Bowl through
Thursday morning. The radar imagery reflects this scenario with
widespread showers from Kodiak Island streaming northward into the
Southcentral region. By Thursday morning look for a drying trend
as the surface low moves into the lower Gulf. The winds will shift
out of the north direction providing offshore through Friday for
the Southcentral region. Meanwhile, an upstream ridge begins to
build from the west into the AOR. This will result in gusty gap
winds developing through the Barren Islands, and the Whittier
region by late Thursday evening through Friday. Meanwhile, The
thermal trough remains on the north side of the Alaska Range,
and accompanied with instability will increase the chances for
isolated thunderstorms over the Alaska Range, and the Talkeetnas
this evening. By Thursday afternoon/evening with the diminished
cloud cover will aid in the development of decent diurnal
convective isolated showers/thunderstorms along the Alaska Range
and the Talkeetnas. Look for areas of patchy fog developing as we
begin to clear out combined with radiational cooling by early
Thursday morning through the AOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Shower activity will gradually taper off from west to east across
Southwest Alaska over the next 24 hours as the upper level low
over the region dives south into the Gulf of Alaska. Decent cold
air aloft associated with the upper level low has continued to
enhance mid-level lapse rates which has aided in the development
of convective showers. Thunderstorms have been observed in the
Upper Kuskokwim Valley near Nikolai and it is likely a few
thunderstorms make it south into the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley this afternoon and evening. Shower activity will
largely be confined to mountainous terrain on Thursday with the
loss of synoptic forcing and an errant thunderstorm or two remains
well within the realm of possibilities. With high pressure
beginning to build across Southwest Alaska on Thursday, a return
of warmer temperatures is expected with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A front will continue to push across the western and central
Bering Sea tonight and Thursday before moving into the eastern
Bering Thursday night. A nice band of rainfall will be seen along
the leading edge of the front but will quickly push eastward as
the parent low in the western Bering Sea quickly moves eastward.
Winds are forecasted up to 30 kts across the western Bering but
should quickly drop to 20 kts by Thursday morning as the front
weakens. Fog looks like a pretty significant concern as a moisture
rich air mass comes in contact with a very stable air mass ahead
of the frontal boundary. This could lead to visibilities dropping
to one mile or less at times across the central Aleutians tonight
and Thursday morning. Conditions will improve as high pressure
over the eastern Bering begins moving inland over Southwest Alaska
on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active pattern will continue through the weekend with several
upper level features progressing through the area. One of which
will be a vort max that by Friday night will be over the Alaska
Peninsula and will quickly track off to the southeast. There is
good consistency with this feature but it will have minimal impact
except for bringing rain to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay
areas.

The next feature is more problematic. There is good consistency
that a trough will swing down through southern Alaska sometime on
Sunday but where exactly it tracks and its exact timing are
causing problems. The EC has a very strong vort max that seems
unlikely in this pattern so a solution closer to the GFS and
ensemble means was preferred. This would bring a lighter rain to
areas around southern Alaska on Sunday as opposed to the
potentially heavier rain that the EC would bring. Early next week
a ridge will then build in over the western Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DK