Small Craft Advisory 499, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jun 18, 2016, 2:58 PM AKDT (22:58 UTC)

Expired

Jun 19, 2016, 3:30 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

049 
FZAK51 PAFC 182258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191130-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT...MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GULF BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-191130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT HINCHINBROOK ISLAND AND
EAST. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191130-
PORT VALDEZ-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191130-
VALDEZ ARM-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191130-
CHINIAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191130-
MARMOT BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jun 18, 4:44 AM AKDT, 10 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The amplified ridge of high pressure has move eastward, and is
located over the Southeast Panhandle extending northward into
the Eastern Beaufort Sea. This is resulting in southerly to
southwesterly flow from the surface throughout the upper levels.
Upstream there is a closed low at the surface just west of Saint
Lawrence Island with support from a 90 knot southwesterly jet
tracking through the Y-K Delta region. While, a 995 mb low is
located just west of Unalaska with support from a 100 knot
westerly jet streak just south of the Central Aleutians. The
satellite imagery is showing a nice comma cloud with this surface
low as the moisture streams over into the lower central Bering as
the low moves along the chain this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in decent agreement before they struggle with the
low pressure that tracks from the Central Aleutians into the
Southwest Alaska region by Sunday. The nam remains slower with
tracking of this system, where the gfs/ecmwf are faster with this
synoptic feature. The forecast confidence remains average heading
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front in the western Gulf will remain stationary for the
remainder of today. Therefore, resulting in increased sky cover
with cooler conditions through this weekend. The coastal ridge
continues to build in resulting in brisk gap flows across the
Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and the Copper River Basin through
Sunday. Rain associated with this front moves across Southcentral
today. The Copper River Basin remains cloudy, and dry associated
with the downslope winds. While, the cross-barrier flow keeps the
Anchorage Bowl with drier conditions heading into the weekend.

By Saturday night a second front will move into the western gulf
and reinforce the gradient across the area. As a result stronger
southeast flow develops along with even stronger winds through
channeled terrain. Gap winds through areas such as Turnagain Arm,
the Copper River Valley, and similarly oriented Valleys will
continue to strengthen through the weekend. Look for the winds to
increase to gale force easterly/southeasterly winds in the Gulf,
and the Prince William Sound region associated with the front by
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A potent low pressure system currently tracking just west of
Dutch Harbor will quickly move east into the region by this
afternoon, bringing widespread areas of rain and showers. A strong
pressure gradient will also increase southeast gap winds near the
mountain gaps by this afternoon then peaking tonight. The main
surge of moisture moves east tonight, but widespread wraparound
rain and showers will continue through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A strong low just east of Dutch Harbor will quickly move east
toward the southwest coast today, then move inland tonight. There
were satellite detected thunderstorms along the elevated warm
front earlier this evening just south and west of Dutch Harbor,
but those have since dissipated. But given the intense nature of
the low, there is still a slight chance this morning as the warm
front tracks over the Eastern Aleutians. As the low quickly races
east, strong southerly winds will quickly turn around the west-
northwest and reach near gale force before weakening Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models are in sufficient agreement to continue with the Nam for
Sunday night into Monday. For the ALU domain this means the low
will slowly weaken over southwest Alaska with plenty of rain,
while a weak trough moves across the Pribilofs and reaches the
Akpen with more rain. A North Pacific low and associated fronts
approach the western Aleutians with small craft winds, with
continued northward motion temporarily impeded by weak high
pressure over the western Bering.

Beyond Monday the EC and Canadian have similar solutions. High
pressure over the Bering moves across the mainland and weakens by
Thursday. The Aleutian low and associated fronts move across the
rest of the islands into southwest Alaska by late Wednesday. The
complex then drops southeast into the Gulf by next weekend. High
pressure then rebuilds across the Bering for the weekend.

This means rain and showers over southwest Alaska will slowly
diminish by Tuesday beneath high pressure. Rain and showers with
the Aleutian low and fronts will spread across the Aleutians and
Bering, reaching southwest Alaska Thursday through Friday. Drying
conditions will develop across the Bering as the high rebuilds.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...119 125 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD/LIW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.