Gale Warning 436, NWS Anchorage, AK

049 
FZAK51 PAFC 182258
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191130-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT...MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GULF BY LATE SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-191130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT HINCHINBROOK ISLAND AND
EAST. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191130-
PORT VALDEZ-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191130-
VALDEZ ARM-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191130-
CHINIAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191130-
MARMOT BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
258 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a fairly large upper level low centered over northern
Bering Sea near Saint Lawrence Island. There is a weakening front
associated with this low stretching from Norton sound through
Kodiak Island. Upper level high pressure over eastern Alaska is
being shunted eastward ahead of this front. Cooler, moister and
breezier conditions are being pushed eastward as this front opens
up southwesterly flow aloft across southern Alaska. There is a
frontal system spinning up south of the central Aleutians that is
moving rapidly toward the northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fair agreement through the short term
(Sunday afternoon). By late tonight the models begin to diverge
on the speed of the low that is currently south of the central
Aleutians. The ECMWF is the fastest bringing this low into
southwest Alaska, and the NAM appears to be the slowest. For now
the forecast goes with more of a consensus forecast in the middle,
more like the GFS and Canadian models. These differences are not
huge, therefore the forecast confidence is near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The first of two fronts is moving across Kodiak Island and will
continue to migrate northeast. This will advect increased sky
cover resulting in cooler conditions this weekend. The coastal
ridge will build in advance of the approaching frontal trough
resulting in brisk gap flows across Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and
the Copper River Basin into Sunday. Rain associated with the
front will push across Southcentral overnight into Saturday. The
exception being Copper River Basin, where downslope winds will
keep the area cloudy but dry. Cross-barrier flow across the
western Chugach slopes will keep Anchorage and vicinity largely,
but likely not completely, dry through Saturday.

By Saturday night a second front will move into the western gulf
and reinforce the gradient across the area. As a result stronger
southeast flow develops along with even stronger winds through
channeled terrain. Gap winds especially through areas such as
Turnagain Arm, the Copper River Valley and similarly oriented
Valleys will continue to strengthen through the weekend peaking in
the afternoons and evenings with Sunday afternoon especially
windy. Additionally winds east to southeast winds in the Gulf and
Prince William Sounds associated with the front and resulting
coast jet will increase to gale force by Sunday with biggest
change to increase winds over Prince William Sound to advisory
levels Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions for the majority of the eastern TAF
sites tonight into Saturday. Exceptions are for Kodiak and Cordova
with marginal ceilings late this afternoon and evening hours.
Under the onshore flow pattern for those sites will keep the
ceilings below 3000 feet for Cordova and potentially below a 1000
ft and some patchy fog for Kodiak. Lower ceilings should be
lowering for locations along Cook inlet overnight, though not
quite reaching the Anchorage area. Valdez should remain VFR
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are expected across the Copper River basin
through Friday evening. As the front slowly moves in from the
southwest, the surface ridge over the northeast Gulf of Alaska
strengthens. At the same time, inland heating in east central
Alaska will combine with the ridge beginning to break down. This
will lead to fairly gusty winds. Temperatures will continue to be
very warm, and humidities very dry. On Saturday increased sky
cover will aid in diminished winds, lower temperatures and
slightly higher humidities, so Red Flag conditions are not
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Currently we have a low in the northern Bering Sea with a front
extending south to another low to the southwest of Kodiak Island.
The low near the Bering Strait will pull north and the associated
front moves northeast tonight. Behind this is a weak ridge that
is immediately followed by a weak trough over the central Bering
Sea. The weak ridge flattens as it moves over southwest Alaska
ushering in a zonal stable flow off the Bering Sea. An intensifying
low south of the central Aleutians will be the next system to
impact the southwest mainland this weekend. This low will be
moving inland near Dillingham Saturday night then track north to
the Norton Sound area through Sunday morning. We are still
anticipating a good shot of wind in advance of the front with this
low with the typical accelerated wind through the mountain gaps.
This storm will also bring a good shot of rain to the southwest
mainland this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An intensifying and fast moving low south of the aleutians will
move across the eastern Aleutians Saturday morning and move along
north of the Alaska Peninsula into the Bristol Bay coast Saturday
night. This storm will be accompanied with rain and moderate wind
for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula standards. Following this
low a broad zonal flow will be in place across the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands, with extensive stratus and some areas of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models are in sufficient agreement to continue with the NAM for
Sun night into Mon. For the ALU domain this means the low will
slowly weaken over southwest Alaska with plenty of rain, while a
weak trough moves across the Pribilofs and reaches the Akpen with
more rain. A North Pacific low and associated fronts approach the
western Aleutians with small craft winds, with continued northward
motion temporarily impeded by weak high pressure over the western
Bering.

Beyond Mon the EC and Canadian have similar solutions. High
pressure over the Bering moves across the mainland and weakens by
Thu. The Aleutian low and associated fronts move across the rest
of the islands into southwest Alaska by late Wed. The complex then
drops southeast into the Gulf by next weekend. High pressure then
rebuilds across the Bering for the weekend.

This means rain and showers over southwest Alaska will slowly
diminish by Tue beneath high pressure. Rain and showers with the
Aleutian low and fronts will spread across the Aleutians and
Bering, reaching southwest Alaska Thu through Fri. Drying
conditions will develop across the Bering as the high rebuilds.

For Southcentral, the frontal system moving through Sunday will
continue to push north and inland Monday allowing the stratiform
rain rain to change over to showers. A shortwave ridge will move
across southcentral in the wake of this system with another day of
warmer and drier weather. Model solutions and ensembles remain in
good agreement through early next week with improving agreement in
another system mid to late next week. Inherited forecast
represented this well so maintained forecast through the extended.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning...141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...DS