Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
FZAK52 PAFC 150003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151245-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF ADAK DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. A FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY WEAKENING STARTING
EARLY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI
AFTERNOON STALLS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-151245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-151245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-151245-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-151245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-151245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-151245-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-151245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-151245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-151245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-151245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-151245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-151245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-151245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-151245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-151245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-151245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-151245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
456 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL
LOWS THIS MORNING...WITH ONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND
THE OTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
BERING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION AS A
DEFORMATION BAND TAKES SHAPE FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
TO JUST WEST OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND INTO THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY...WITH SNOWFALL BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE INLET. SATELLITE-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXTREMELY MOIST...WITH PW ANOMALIES WELL OVER
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
AND FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WHERE IT IS NOT SNOWING.

FARTHER WEST...A BROAD COMPLEX LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING WINDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE
CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON SOME SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS SUCH AS HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
IMPACTING HOW LONG SNOWFALL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COOK INLET
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUT WEST...THE GFS IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER IN AMPLIFYING AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
MUCH STRONGER THAN DEPICTED BY THE PREFERRED EUROPEAN (EC)
MODEL.

MAINLY UTILIZED HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE ON THE EAST DOMAIN...WITH THE EC PREFERRED FOR THE WEST
DESK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THERE IS A DEFORMATION BAND TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
INTERIOR ALASKA. IT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE DEFORMATION BAND AND RESULTING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...NORTHERN COOK INLET...THE ANCHORAGE
METRO AREA AND MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH NO STRONG
MECHANISM TO KICK EITHER THE UPPER TROUGH OR EASTERN GULF LOW
CLEAR OF THE AREA...EXPECTING THE DEFORMATION BAND TO LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW TAPERING TO SCATTERED THEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS RATHER THAN ENDING ABRUPTLY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT WEATHER CONCERN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE NEXT INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY BRINGING EASTERLY GALES WITH IT AND
ALSO INCREASING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH COASTAL TERRAIN
GAPS AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT...AND A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT
MOVING INTO THE BERING WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZIEST ALONG THE COASTS. THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING STRAIT WILL KEEP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE DELTA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING BEFORE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW REDUCES THE FOG THREAT
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA (DAYS
1 AND 2)...

A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CHANGE TO MOSTLY
RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

EC AND GFS ARE IN BRIEF AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
BECOMING DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. A TRANSPACIFIC JET WILL RUN
UP AGAINST A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FRI AND
SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THROUGH SUN. AT THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF WPC IS USED, WHICH BEARS A STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE
EC AT TIMES. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN DRIFTS SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND THROUGH TUE AND THEN DISSIPATES. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW
THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF LATER ON THU.
THE FORECAST EXHIBITS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THEN THE ENSEMBLE INTRODUCES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DURING THE
WEEK.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AKPEN...SNOW SHOWERS SWITCHING TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL THEN BRING
RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO WED...WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 160 180 185
	     GALE WARNING 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 173 175 177 178 179 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS