Small Craft Advisory 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

254 
FZAK51 PAFC 150018
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151300-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA FRI AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF JUST OFF SHORE OF THE COAST LATE FRI
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN SAT.

$$

PKZ119-151300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151300-
PORT VALDEZ-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151300-
VALDEZ ARM-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151300-
CHINIAK BAY-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151300-
MARMOT BAY-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
318 PM AKST THU JAN 14 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

272 
FZAK51 PAFC 151220
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160145-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL GULF SAT MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-160145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160145-
PORT VALDEZ-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160145-
VALDEZ ARM-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160145-
CHINIAK BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160145-
MARMOT BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
320 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
456 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL
LOWS THIS MORNING...WITH ONE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND
THE OTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
BERING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE COOK INLET REGION AS A
DEFORMATION BAND TAKES SHAPE FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
TO JUST WEST OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND INTO THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY...WITH SNOWFALL BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THE INLET. SATELLITE-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA IS EXTREMELY MOIST...WITH PW ANOMALIES WELL OVER
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
AND FOG FORMATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WHERE IT IS NOT SNOWING.

FARTHER WEST...A BROAD COMPLEX LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING WINDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE
CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON SOME SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS SUCH AS HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL AK AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
IMPACTING HOW LONG SNOWFALL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE COOK INLET
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OUT WEST...THE GFS IS
CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER IN AMPLIFYING AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
MUCH STRONGER THAN DEPICTED BY THE PREFERRED EUROPEAN (EC)
MODEL.

MAINLY UTILIZED HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE ON THE EAST DOMAIN...WITH THE EC PREFERRED FOR THE WEST
DESK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THERE IS A DEFORMATION BAND TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN THE
EASTERN GULF TO THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
INTERIOR ALASKA. IT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE DEFORMATION BAND AND RESULTING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA...NORTHERN COOK INLET...THE ANCHORAGE
METRO AREA AND MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH NO STRONG
MECHANISM TO KICK EITHER THE UPPER TROUGH OR EASTERN GULF LOW
CLEAR OF THE AREA...EXPECTING THE DEFORMATION BAND TO LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW TAPERING TO SCATTERED THEN
ISOLATED SHOWERS RATHER THAN ENDING ABRUPTLY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT WEATHER CONCERN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE NEXT INCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY BRINGING EASTERLY GALES WITH IT AND
ALSO INCREASING NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH COASTAL TERRAIN
GAPS AS IT APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT...AND A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT
MOVING INTO THE BERING WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST OFFSHORE FLOW...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZIEST ALONG THE COASTS. THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING STRAIT WILL KEEP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE DELTA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING BEFORE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW REDUCES THE FOG THREAT
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA (DAYS
1 AND 2)...

A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING
SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH A CHANGE TO MOSTLY
RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

EC AND GFS ARE IN BRIEF AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
BECOMING DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. A TRANSPACIFIC JET WILL RUN
UP AGAINST A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FRI AND
SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE AKPEN THROUGH SUN. AT THIS POINT THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH OF WPC IS USED, WHICH BEARS A STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE
EC AT TIMES. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN DRIFTS SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND THROUGH TUE AND THEN DISSIPATES. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW
THEN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF LATER ON THU.
THE FORECAST EXHIBITS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THEN THE ENSEMBLE INTRODUCES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DURING THE
WEEK.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE
LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AKPEN...SNOW SHOWERS SWITCHING TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL THEN BRING
RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST INTO WED...WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CROSSING THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH MON.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 160 180 185
	     GALE WARNING 132 150 155 165 170 171 172 173 175 177 178 179 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS