Small Craft Advisory 449, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
FZAK51 PAFC 302336
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311300-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT...MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE TUE AFTERNOON...THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES BY
WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-311300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-311300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-311300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-311300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-311300-
PORT VALDEZ-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-311300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-311300-
VALDEZ ARM-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.


$$

PKZ129-311300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-311300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-311300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-311300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-311300-
CHINIAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-311300-
MARMOT BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-311300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-311300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-311300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-311300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

845 
FZAK51 PAFC 311141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010015-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUE AND THEN WEAKENS
THROUGH WED NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

$$

PKZ119-010015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-010015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-010015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-010015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-010015-
PORT VALDEZ-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-010015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-010015-
VALDEZ ARM-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-010015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-010015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-010015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-010015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-010015-
CHINIAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-010015-
MARMOT BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-010015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-010015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-010015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-010015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

207 
FZAK51 PAFC 312338
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011300-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-011300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011300-
PORT VALDEZ-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011300-
VALDEZ ARM-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING 
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011300-
CHINIAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011300-
MARMOT BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

216 
FZAK51 PAFC 011142
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-020030-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
WEAKENS THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-020030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-020030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-020030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-020030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-020030-
PORT VALDEZ-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-020030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-020030-
VALDEZ ARM-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-020030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-020030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-020030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-020030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-020030-
CHINIAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-020030-
MARMOT BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-020030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-020030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-020030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-020030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The high pressure system that has been entrenched over the
mainland for the past few days is beginning to retrograde to the
west, allowing a shift in the pattern for mainland Alaska. Broad
northerly flow on the eastern side of this high has brought dry
air and warm temperatures to the mainland over the past several
days. Today, this is being enhanced by an upper level jet streak
that will move southward over the southcentral region. As the day
continues, winds have already started mixing down with gusty
winds ramping up in the Susitna Valley. This should bring down
dry air from aloft as well. Although the RH values are already low
at the surface there is a significant dry layer just above 700 mb,
as seen on this morning's sounding from Anchorage. Mixing this dry
air down should continue dry conditions around the region.

A second feature of interest this morning is a trough moving in
from the east behind the high as it continues to retrograde. This
trough is expected to pick up what little mid level moisture is
available, and combined with the upper level instability generated
by the jet streak, lead to development of thunderstorms as the
trough moves westward. Satellite shows convective activity
already this morning and a few early lightning strikes near the
Al-Can border indicate that the instability is definitely there.

Further west the pattern continues to be dominated by the upper
level high. An upper level low just south of the Aleutians will
bring precipitation to the central Aleutians today, but most of
the Bering and the west coast is currently being affected by
marine stratus, as is evident on visible satellite this morning.
As the high shifts westward, flow should be transitioning to
offshore, pushing the remaining fog in the Kuskokwim Delta out
to the Bering Sea. Once this happens, conditions will dry out
significantly.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement was fairly high this morning and so confidence
in the short term forecast is high, except for the lingering fog
along the Kuskokwim coast, which was not handled well by any
model. The NAM was chosen for detail resolution in the short term.
By the Tuesday time frame, models begin to diverge on the
solution of the Aleutian low and confidence in the forecast
decreases.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds and dry air mixing down from aloft and thunderstorms are the
two main fire weather concerns for today. As mentioned, winds are
already kicking up in the Susitna Valley, and the Kuskokwim Valley
is also seeing near Red Flag conditions this morning. The struggle
will be along the Kuskokwim coast where fog has taken more of a
stronghold than expected this morning. Winds are expected to
become more offshore with the upper level support in the
afternoon, but the question still remains as to whether that will
happen in time to reach Red Flag criteria this afternoon and
evening. Best chances for that occurring are in the eastern side
of the zone, where skies remained clear this morning.

As for the thunderstorms, conditions look good for the approaching
shortwave to kick off storms in the Talkeetnas and possibly down
along the Kenai as well. This wave will move westward into the
Kuskokwim Valley tomorrow, bringing widely scattered thunderstorms
to that region. For today, the layer of dry air close to the
surface brings a risk that a few thunderstorms in the Southcentral
region may be dry, although they will be isolated. As this trough
pushes westward, the upper level flow will change to be more
southerly, bringing more moisture in and lowering the risk for dry
thunderstorms in any location tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Thunderstorms are popping up around the area this evening, while
slightly cooler conditions are expected through midweek. Scattered
to numerous showers are blossoming mainly along the Chugach and
Copper River Basin this evening while isolated lightning strikes
are showing up as well. These conditions will hold through the
evening before tapering off overnight. On Monday most of the
shower activity will be confined to the Kenai Peninsula in the
morning. As the system that produced these showers exits, a
slightly cooler air mass will come in behind it and will bring
cooler but still above normal temperatures to the mainland with
no precipitation forecast.

A weakening jet aloft combined with a shortwave trough and modest
instability is forcing showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Most of this activity is scattered in nature except for the
leading edge of the wave, over the Kenai Mountains, which is
producing quite a few lighting strikes. This trough will sit over
the southern Kenai Monday before exiting. The air mass behind the
exiting disturbance is much more stable though small pockets of
instability will exist over the terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Ridging will continue to bring sunny and warm conditions to the
southwest mainland this evening, while a developing surface trough
will bring increasing offshore flow to the Kuskokwim River and
Delta. Over Bristol Bay, this trough will bring onshore flow to
most of the area, while weak instability will produce showers or
even a few cracks of thunder along the Alaska Range this evening.
As this onshore flow diminishes with clearing skies tonight,
patchy fog may develop for a few hours overnight for the low
lying areas of Bristol Bay.

An easterly wave will then push overhead on Monday, bringing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the Alaska Range for the
afternoon, which will then move westward into the Kuskokwim Valley
and Delta for the late afternoon and evening hours. Afterwards,
broad cyclonic flow aloft on Tuesday will maintain a chance of
showers for the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay, while sunny and
warm weather begins to return to the Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The gale force low moving through the Aleutians will bring gusty
winds and rain to the region through Monday when it will begin to
dissipate over the Southern Bering. To the west of this low,
northerly flow and cold air advection will allow for persistent
fog/stratus that has developed over the western Bering/Aleutians
to begin to diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Tuesday through Saturday)...
The pattern heading into the middle of the week shifts toward
dominating low pressure across the gulf and ridging to the west.
The Bering will trend toward a drier and more stable environment
from mid week into next weekend. Meanwhile, low pressure across
the gulf advects moisture across the southern mainland through the
end of the week bringing increased cloud cover and rain chances.
After a relatively dry Wednesday, a deformation zone sets up near
the Alaska range as another low pressure system digs toward the
eastern Beaufort sea coast on Thursday. This combined with several
upper level shortwaves moving around systems will initiate convective
diurnal showers through the weekend. Models are in good agreement
on this synoptic change, however, there are differences in handling
multiple upper level disturbances from the two dominant lows. The
NAM was used to handle the transition into Wednesday and then
switched influence in the extended forecast to ECMWF along with
some of the 06Z GEFS MEAN which provided the best consistency.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 155 165 170 172 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning 145 153 155.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...KH