Gale Warning 423, NWS Anchorage, AK

402 
FZAK52 PAFC 311139
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010015-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO 991 MB...THEN
MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC 280 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THROUGH
WED NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO 997 MB.

$$

PKZ150-010015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-010015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ160-010015-
BRISTOL BAY-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-010015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-010015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-010015-
UNALASKA BAY-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-010015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-010015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-010015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-010015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-010015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ177-010015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ178-010015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-010015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-010015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-010015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-010015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
339 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

523 
FZAK52 PAFC 312312
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011215-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 MB LOW 75 NM WEST OF NIKOLSKI MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF
NIKOLSKI AT 995 MB WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE 30 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011215-
BRISTOL BAY-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011215-
UNALASKA BAY-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
312 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The mid-level high pressure system that has been entrenched over
the mainland for the past few days is beginning to retrograde to
the west, allowing a shift in the pattern for mainland Alaska.
Broad northerly flow on the eastern side of this high has brought
dry air and warm temperatures to the mainland over the past
several days. This is being enhanced by an upper level jet streak
that will move southward over the Southwest region. The beginning
of a series of stout easterly waves initiated showers and
thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and evening across nearly all of
Southcentral and parts of Bristol Bay in Southwest Alaska. Radar
shows that some of this shower activity has held together or
even increased through the night, given good dynamics aloft.

Further west, the pattern continues to be dominated by the upper
level high centered just north of the Bering Strait. A
strengthening low with widespread rain and gale- force winds is
approaching the Central Aleutians, but most of the Bering and Gulf
coast regions are being affected by marine stratus, as is evident
on visible satellite this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement was fairly high this morning and so confidence in
the short term forecast is high.

The stout upper disturbance over the Interior of the state will
push across Southwest Alaska today and then west across the
central Bering tonight on the south side of the upper high and
north side of the low over the Central Aleutians. This disturbance
will also leave a mid-level boundary extending back to the east
into the northern Gulf of Alaska, which will be the next wave to
impact Southcentral Tuesday. Easterly waves will continue to push
across Southcentral through mid-week, but may begin to encounter
resistance over Southwest by ridging moving in from the north.

The low reaching near the Central Aleutians later tonight will
remain nearly stationary through Tuesday night while weakening
before dropping south into the North Pacific Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Thunderstorm coverage will be the big question today as easterly
waves move across Southwest Alaska. The most likely areas to see
at least a storm or two are from the Copper River Basin west to
the Kuskokwim Delta, including the Susitna Valley, western Kenai
Peninsula, Alaska Range, and Middle Kuskokwim Valley. For now have
opted to go no higher than an LAL of 2 but there is potential for
some areas to see a little more organized coverage. Temperatures
and humidity values will moderate a bit from over the weekend with
the lack of strong northerly flow over the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Unstable air will remain over most of south central Alaska today
as the upper level low and associated strong short-wave slowly
slide west. It will be a little more stable today than it was on
Sunday, but some thunderstorms are still possible...mainly over
the Copper River and Susitna valleys. Conditions will stabilize
tonight as the upper low moves into southwest Alaska and the ridge
to the north nudges into the area. The area will then settle into
a pattern with a ridge to the north and a trough to the south for
Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will keep things mainly dry,
except for some diurnal convection over the mountains and some
showers along the eastern Kenai peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A set of easterly waves pushing through today will bring showers
and a few thunderstorms to areas from the Alaska Range west
through the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon and evening.
Afterwards, broad cyclonic flow aloft on Tuesday will keep a
chance of showers to the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay, while
sunny and warm weather begins to return to the Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The gale-force low moving through the Aleutians will bring gusty
winds and rain to the region through Monday when it will begin to
dissipate over the Southern Bering through mid-week. To the west
of this low, northerly flow and cold air advection will allow for
persistent fog/stratus that has developed over the western
Bering/Aleutians to begin to diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Tuesday through Saturday)...

The pattern heading into the middle of the week shifts toward
low pressure across the Gulf and ridging to the west. The Bering
will trend toward a drier and more stable environment from mid-week
into next weekend. Meanwhile, low pressure across the gulf advects
moisture across the southern mainland through the end of the week
bringing increased cloud cover and rain chances. After a
relatively dry Wednesday, a deformation zone sets up near the
Alaska range as another low pressure system digs toward the
eastern Beaufort sea coast on Thursday. This combined with several
upper level shortwaves moving around systems will initiate
convective diurnal showers through the weekend. Models are in good
agreement on this synoptic change, however, there are differences
in handling multiple upper level disturbances from the two
dominant lows. The NAM was used to handle the transition into
Wednesday and then switched to the ECMWF along with some of the
06Z GEFS MEAN in the extended range, which provided the best
consistency.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...165 170 172-175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...KH/CC