Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Anchorage, AK

582 
FZAK51 PAFC 131215
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140045-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF
SITKA AT 998 MB EARLY THU MORNING AND DISSIPATES THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-140045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-140045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-140045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-140045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-140045-
PORT VALDEZ-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-140045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-140045-
VALDEZ ARM-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-140045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-140045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-140045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-140045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. N
OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-140045-
CHINIAK BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-140045-
MARMOT BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-140045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-140045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-140045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-140045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

769 
FZAK51 PAFC 140003
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141245-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY FILL TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE THU. A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF FRI.

$$

PKZ119-141245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141245-
PORT VALDEZ-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141245-
VALDEZ ARM-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141245-
CHINIAK BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141245-
MARMOT BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-141245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC MAP
TODAY...WITH ONE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS...AND A SECOND ONE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
KUSKOKWIM LOW IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING STEADY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF WESTERN
SOUTHCENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT DIFFER ON MORE OF THE MESOSCALE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PROGRESSION
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WEDNESDAY...DUE
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FORCING OF THIS SYSTEM...THE PRECIPITATION
FIELDS FOR EACH MODEL SOLUTION VARY. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY DOING A RELATIVELY POOR JOB IN CAPTURING THE WEAKLY
FORCED SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IN THE MOST RECENT
RUNS...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON SETTING UP THE
PRECIPITATION BAND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ANCHORAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING UP COOK INLET PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-TO-WEST
THROUGH THE AREAS SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE
AREA AND NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WAVE WILL THEN HEAD
BACK OVER THE ANCHORAGE/MATANUSKA VALLEY/SUSITNA VALLEY AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST NUDGES
THE SYSTEM BACK EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BETTER ORGANIZED BY
THE TIME IT STARTS BACK-TRACKING OVER THE ANCHORAGE AREA...WITH A
NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GO WITH THE TROUGH. WITH THE CURRENT
MODELS SHOWING THIS...WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS MORE DEFINED SYSTEM HEADS BACK OVER THE
ANCHORAGE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT STEADILY DRYING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LOW TRACKING NORTH TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWEST...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...SOME OF IT
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA (DAYS
1 AND 2)...

A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING WILL SLOWLY MAKE
EASTWARD PROGRESS AS A SERIES OF MORE COMPACT LOWS WRAP INTO THE
BERING SEA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A STRONG JET CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL SPIN UP SMALL...DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST LOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THU. IN ORDER
TO MAKE THIS MORE MANAGEABLE...THE FORECAST UTILIZES AN ENSEMBLE
APPROACH TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THESE FEATURES. THIS SOLUTION
YIELDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN ON THU THAT SPINS IN
PLACE UNTIL IT DRIFTS OVER KODIAK ON TUE. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
APPEAR AS A LARGE LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...WITH A TROUGH
STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE GULF OF AK. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS IN PLACE BEFORE
MOVING OVER KODIAK ISLAND ON TUE.

AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY ROTATES IT WILL BRING COASTAL RAIN AND
PERIODS OF INTERIOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE...AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER SW AK
UNTIL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE BY THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MIGRATE WEST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL THE MAIN LOW
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN BECOMES CONTROLLING BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 165 170 171 172 175 177
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS